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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -203.1666
on Friday, June 14, the euro/dollar pair began a downward movement after a rather tangible growth and the pound/dollar resumed the downward trend after a slight upward correction. The bulls were unable to help the pound recover against the US dollar and the quotes failed to leave above the level of 1.2756. At the moment, the pair has already come close to the previous local lows (1.2558), and in the near future, bears can safely pass these levels. Thus, bears remain much stronger than bulls. And this is logical and understandable, given all the political chaos and uncertainty around Brexit in the UK. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, who is also a candidate for the post of Prime Minister of the country, said that the EU will be ready to go to new talks with London, if such a request is addressed to the new Prime Minister and there will be a specific proposal on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. An impressive statement, but we draw the attention of traders to the fact that from the European Union itself, there has not yet been a single message confirming such statements by Hunt. If new negotiations are really possible, then why hide it? On the contrary, the more transparent and clear everything becomes, the faster both sides will get what they want – a "divorce" and a new life in the new conditions. But EU leaders are silent, which makes us think, and not just whether it is the campaign promises of Hunt, which will not materialize? The pound sterling is experiencing the skepticism of the markets and the distrust of traders to the full. It seems that we are waiting for a new protracted fall of the British currency.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2573
S2 – 1.2543
S3 – 102512
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2604
R2 – 1.2634
R3 – 1.2665
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement, so today, on June 17, it is again recommended to trade short positions with the targets at 1.2543 and 1.2512.
It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair not earlier than reversing above the moving average, but even in this case, the purchases will be associated with increased risks, as the bulls remain very weak due to the situation in the UK.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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