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European currency slumped against the US dollar after today's speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who signaled his intention to lower interest rates, if the situation requires it. Immediately after that, US President Donald Trump spoke out with criticism of the ECB, but first things first.
During the press conference, ECB President Draghi said that the central bank is still committed to its goals and did not accept the low inflation. If the inflationary situation does not improve, additional stimulation will be required. We are talking about the bond purchasing program, as well as lowering interest rates.
Draghi also noted that the concept of politics has changed in the past to confront new challenges, and this can happen again. In the coming weeks, the ECB will analyze how existing instruments can be adapted in proportion to the risk to inflation.
The ECB president is also confident that further rate cuts and mitigating measures are designed to limit side effects from the negative impact of a slowdown in the global economy and trade conflicts. At the end of the speech, Draghi noted that the ECB still has considerable space for the further purchase of bonds.
Let me remind you that in early June, representatives of the ECB have already announced that the central bank may resume the asset purchase program that was stopped in December.
As I noted above, US President Donald Trump criticized the speech of Mario Draghi.
Trump said that Draghi's performance weakened the euro against the US dollar, which again created an unfair competitive advantage. The US president also said that for many years Europe has gotten away with such things, as well as China and other countries that deliberately devalue their national currency against the US dollar.
This suggests that, perhaps, in the near future, the White House administration will return to a trade war with the EU, which was put on "pause" a year ago.
Today's data on the eurozone surplus put pressure on the euro. According to the report, the eurozone's foreign trade surplus amounted to 15.3 billion euros in April 2019 against 18.6 billion euros in March. Excluding the correction, the surplus was reduced to 15.7 billion euros from 17.1 billion euros in April 2018.
All because of the sharp decline in exports from the eurozone, which occurred against the backdrop of trade conflicts. According to the report, exports from the eurozone decreased by 2.5% in April of this year compared with March, while imports fell by only 0.9%. The main blow fell on the manufacturing industry.
The data on inflation in the eurozone coincided with the forecasts of economists, further convincing the management of the European Central Bank of the correctness of their intentions.
According to the report, the annual rate of inflation in the eurozone slowed to 1.2% in May from 1.7% in April. The target level of the ECB is slightly below 2%.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the pressure on risky assets will continue until the trade is below the resistance of 1.1215. Sellers are now focused on the re-test of support at 1.1180, which took place in the morning. A breakthrough of this range will open a direct path to a low of 1.1140.
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