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For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed high volatility of 61 points. As a result, the quote resumed the inertial movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quote is smooth; however, it puts pressure on the decline, overcoming points of periodic pillars on the way. The value of 1.1200, which kept us temporarily, helped the quotation to regroup, where with new forces, we went further, going down to a value of 1.1180, congestion at earlier periods. Considering the trading schedule in general terms, we see that the main downward trend is alive and the recovery process after the recent growth is moving actively. Traders are actively discussing the point 1.1112 as the level of the current support. There is not much information on the news background. Let's start with the statistics. In Europe, there were data on inflation where previous data was revised. As a result, it received a significant slowdown from 1.7% to 1.2%. Naturally, on this background, the euro flew down, breaking the pivot point at 1.1200. After that, weak data on the construction sector of the United States came out. The number of building permits issued in May was 1.294M with a forecast of 1.296M. The volume of construction of new homes was revised from 1.235M to 1.281M. And the current figure for the month of May was 1.269M with a forecast of 1.239M. The most interesting thing awaits us ahead. Yesterday, the economic conference in Portugal was dedicated to the twentieth anniversary of the monetary union. The head of the ECB, Mario Drigi, was present in the event where he directly stated that the reduction in rates remains part of the toolkit. In the similar way, but on the basis of anonymity, it was confirmed by three representatives of the ECB in which the regulator considers lowering rates as a priority tool of monetary policy. After this statement, the media had an uproar saying that Draghi allegedly collapsed the euro. At the same time, President Donald Trump stated on his tweet: "Mario Draghi just announced an additional incentive, which immediately led the euro to the dollar down and allowed them unfairly easier to compete with the United States. They get away with it for years with China and others".
Now, for the analysis of the flight, what else should be drawn out from the collapse of the euro? At the time of the speech, despite its insignificance, the main movement pertains to the data on inflation. "Euro collapsed", I will reveal a secret - the euro has been flying for more than ten years.
Today, the key event of the day is the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. Although there is no doubt that the parameters of monetary policy themselves will remain unchanged, everyone cares about a completely different question - the fate of the refinancing rate, and in particular, its decline.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a clear deceleration within the cluster level of 1.1180. Probably, let's assume a temporary wagging within the current values, where traders are waiting for the outcome of the FOMC meeting and, of course, the subsequent press conference with Jerome Powell. Traders recommend taking a temporary wait until the Fed's rhetoric is understood. The speculators are already trying to track down the slowdowns and rumors to break into a possible jump.
Further selling positions will be considered in case of resumption of the inertial course and price fixing lower than 1.1175.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term have an upward interest against the background of stagnation-rollback. Intraday and medium term retain a downward interest.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 19 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 19 points. It is likely to assume that, against the background of the upcoming Fed meeting, volatility may accelerate.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1180 *; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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