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The results of this very meeting became known quite late, even by European standards, and the details that were voiced at the press conference by Jerome Powell, were shown later still. That is, many simply did not have time to respond to what happened. So on Thursday, a cheerful and joyful sale of portraits of deceased presidents of the United States continued with a vengeance, which is perfectly visible from the dynamics of the single European currency. The rebound, of course, suggested itself yesterday, and many were waiting for it, but one should not underestimate how much the prospect of a change in the Federal Reserve System's policy influences the plans of investors who have long since laid the foundation for a further monetary policy tightening. Changing the course of the regulator requires a review of all investment plans.
The pound ran for some time after its continental neighbor, but at some point it just stood up. Of course, the answer suggests itself - Brexit is to blame for everything, or rather, the prospect of seeing Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of Great Britain. Quite expectedly, he won the primary election of the head of the Conservative Party, quite seriously ahead of all his opponents. Now, all members of the Conservative Party must make the final choice between Boris Johnson and current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt. Given that the Conservative Party has about 160,000 members, the elections will be stretched for almost a month, since they will all be voting by mail. For the new head of the Conservative Party, she has is part of the majority in the House of Commons. And for the new prime minister, we only learned about him last July 22. In any case, there is little doubt that Boris Johnson will win, who has a rather interesting position on Brexit and calls for an immediate withdrawal from the European Union, not only without an agreement, but also without any penalties. He is satisfied only with such an agreement, which implies either the absence of any payments, or that Europe shall pay. So it is Brexit that is unregulated, with all its unpredictable consequences for both the United Kingdom and the European Union. However, all this, of course, is extremely interesting, but the growth of the pound stopped much earlier than the results of the primary elections became known. The pound rose in his tracks just when the data on retail sales became known, the growth rates of which collapsed from 5.1% to 2, 3%. The Bank of England also poured oil on the fire, which continues to perform a sketch called "the posture of an ostrich" and once again left unchanged the parameters of monetary policy. There is no doubt that until the end of the epic with the three-time-damned Brexit, the Bank of England will continue to pose as an ostrich hiding its head in the sand. And this is understandable, since it is not worth taking any drastic steps, for it is not yet clear under what scenario will events develop in the future.
Finally, the fall in the dollar stopped only at the time of publication of data on claims for unemployment benefits in the United States, which turned out to be quite good. The total number of applications decreased by 43 thousand, while the forecast was 13 thousand. In particular, the number of repeated applications decreased not by 11 thousand, but by 37 thousand. The number of initial applications, instead of decreasing by 2 thousand, decreased by 6 thousand.
We can say that the potential weakening of the dollar has already been exhausted, so it is worth waiting for a rebound and a local correction. Truth be told, this requires at least some excuse, but with this we have to be cautious today. Only preliminary data on business activity indices in Europe and the United States are published, and in both cases all indicators should remain virtually unchanged. However, in the United States, they are waiting for growth in sales of housing in the secondary market, and at once by 1.2%, so that, albeit slightly, the dollar can somewhat improve its position.
So the single European currency today, may slowly slide to 1.1275.
The pound may end the week at 1.2650.
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