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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 43p - 62p - 67p - 92p - 95p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 72p (70p).
While the euro continues to grow steadily against the US currency, traders have completely turned their attention away from meetings of EU and US regulators to the upcoming G-20 summit, at which the leaders of the US and China will have to meet to discuss a trade agreement between the countries. Donald Trump has previously stated that at the G-20 summit, he expects that Xi Jinping himself would initiate dialogue with him and will not hide or delay the entire process of negotiations. According to Trump, the Chinese side is deliberately in no hurry to negotiate, hoping that Trump will not win in future presidential elections, and that the new president will be more loyal in the negotiations. At the same time, China is not ready to make the concessions that Trump is asking for. If he wanted to, he had already gone with them. But Beijing understands that the US economy will also suffer from a trade war, especially now that macroeconomic indicators have been disappointing for the third consecutive week. Economic indicators are falling, and many analysts attribute this to Trump's protectionist policies. Accordingly, his popularity among the electorate will fall. It seems that this is exactly what China is counting on, but Trump is preparing to introduce new duties on Chinese imports, which will fully cover the entire turnover, if in the near future negotiations will not end in success. "Success," according to Trump, is when China accepts the terms. Beijing does not agree with this position, and on the eve of the summit, made an official statement that both sides must make concessions in order to reach agreement, and not just one. It is difficult to say whether the dollar is getting cheaper on Monday precisely because of the low probability of reaching an agreement between Beijing and Washington, or it's echoes from last week. One way or another, a correction is brewing.
Trading recommendations:
EUR/USD continues to move up. Thus, long positions remain relevant for the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1438, and the MACD reversal will indicate a downward correction.
It will be possible to sell the euro/dollar pair if the bears manage to gain a foothold below the critical line, with the first goal of 1.1241. In this case, the initiative for the EUR/USD pair may return to the bears' hands.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen - the red line.
Kijun-sen - the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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