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On Tuesday, the euro fell to a Fibonacci level of 76.4% (1.1356) against weakened US economic data; sales of new homes for May fell from 679 thousand to 626 thousand, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June fell from 131.3 to 121.5, business activity in Richmond's manufacturing sector decreased from 5 to 3. This is indirectly confirmed by our speculative nature of the market in the previous week. As a result, the probability of a price reversal to the target level of 1.1235 increases. For the development of lower prices, you need to gain a foothold below the MACD line on the four-hour chart (1.1318).
Another scenario, which we considered earlier – continued growth after a correction to the Fibonacci level of 76.4% still has potential. Here, a technical basis could be a reversal of the Marlin oscillator signal line from the boundary with a territory of negative numbers on a four-hour scale. After the price overcomes yesterday's peak to the target level of 1.1445 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) will already be close.
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