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Oil is now the most controversial and unstable asset. Almost at any time, the quotes of "black gold" can jerk in any direction. Factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the conflict between the US and Iran speak in favor of further growth in the cost of a barrel of oil. In favor of the fall – trade tensions between China and the United States, as a result of which the price of Chinese imports to the United States can grow by 10-25%, which will reduce the volume of production of goods in China and thus reduce the demand for oil. Over the past day, the cost of "black gold" jumped up on the information about the possible closure of the refinery of PES (America), as it was caused major damage as a result of a large-scale fire. This potentially reduces the supply of oil on the world market and can reduce the reserves of oil and gasoline in the United States. Meanwhile, the OPEC meeting was postponed to July 1-2, as the participants want to wait for the results of the G20 summit and find out whether Trump will agree with his Chinese counterpart on a trade agreement, or at least whether the parties will make any progress in the negotiations. This will depend on whether the OPEC countries will prolong the agreement, according to which oil production is reduced by 1.2 million barrels per day and which expires on June 30. In the case of prolongation of the agreement by OPEC to reduce production to the end of the year, oil prices may further rise, and data on changes in the volume of crude oil reserves in the vaults of the United States will be known on Friday, their reduction may lead again to the growth of quotations.
Trading recommendations:
At the moment, the #CL tool has resumed its upward movement. Thus, it is recommended to trade for an increase with the goals of 59.87 and 62.16 to a new reversal of the MACD indicator down, which will indicate a new round of the downward correction.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line.
Kijun-Sen – blue line.
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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