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On the daily scale, the scenario we expected yesterday was realized - the Marlin oscillator signal line turned down from the boundary with the growth area. The price did not even reach the balance line, which may indicate the strength of the downward trend. Formally, the price on the way to the target level of 1.2296 already holds nothing. But the price still has to create conditions for a decrease on a smaller scale chart.
At the moment, the price of H4 lies on the balance and MACD lines, the price needs to gain a foothold under them and go below the signal level of 1.2480 - the low of July 5, after which the path to 1.2296 will be opened. The Marlin oscillator signal line is already in the decreasing trend zone.
Today's data on the US economy can help the price in overcoming the supports; the forecast for retail sales for June is 0.1%, a growth forecast of 0.1% is also expected for industrial production, while the forecast for inventories for May is 0.4%.
However, until the price has formed a signal to further decrease, the probability of growth to 1.2665, after preliminary overcoming the signal level of 1.2604, remains. This growth may be due to the rough, but having a place to be double convergence on the daily chart.
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