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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -72.0175
The pound, by and large, ignored the information about the victory of Boris Johnson in the elections of the British Prime Minister and the new leader of the Conservatives. At least, no surge in volatility was observed on July 23rd. The pound rose slightly against the dollar for a short time, just for a few hours, but then immediately returned to its usual downward trend. Only 60 points remain to a previous local minimum. The downward trend is visible to the naked eye. All technical indicators are directed downwards. And at this point, the Bank of England, or rather a member of the monetary committee Michael Saunders adds fuel to the fire. He said that Brexit with the agreement, which is now incorporated in the economic forecasts of the UK, is extremely doubtful, it means that we should wait for the deterioration of the situation, especially led by Boris Johnson, who is an ardent supporter of the "hard" Brexit. Saunders also said that there are no signs of "overheating" of the economy, there is no reason to raise the key rate of the regulator. At the next meeting of the Bank Of England, forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators will be adjusted and will be based on them in the correction of monetary policy, if necessary. And there is a reason to assume that it will be needed. First, all the same Brexit. Secondly, the fall of almost all economic indicators of the country, the depreciation of the national currency. In general, it will not be surprising if Mark Carney begins to hint at the need for stimulating measures for the economy of the United Kingdom at the next meeting. In this case, the pound/dollar pair may come under even more pressure from the bears of the forex currency market.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2421
S2 – 1.2390
S3 – 1.2360
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2451
R2 – 1.2482
R3 – 1.2512
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the British currency again with the goals of 1.2421 and 1.2390. Bears continue to dominate the market.
It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2512 and 1.2543 not earlier than the price consolidation above the moving average line. In this case, the bulls will get another chance to form an upward trend.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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