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The main news yesterday was the release of excellent US retail performance in July. Base sales increased 1.0%, total sales increased 0.7%. An hour later, data on industrial production came out worse than forecast, but the euro could no longer resist a decline. Industrial production in July fell by 0.2%. Euro lost 31 points.
Good US construction data is expected today. The number of bookmarks of new homes in July may grow from 1.25 million to 1.26 million, the indicator of permits for the construction of a new house can show an increase from 1.23 million to 1.27 million. And in the eurozone the trade balance for June, published today may decrease from 20.2 billion euros to 18.7 billion.
We expect the price to consolidate below the Fibonacci level on the daily chart 123.6% (1.1074). Formally, the underlying target of the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0980) opens, but at the beginning of next week, investors can slow down in anticipation of the publication of the FOMC Fed minutes, which will be on Wednesday.
There is a steady decline on the four-chart. Therefore, after consolidating the price below 1.1074, we expect the euro to fall to 1.0980.
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