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It seems that our thesis on the US dollar will be in demand as an asset, for which it will be possible to purchase protective US government bonds amid the uncertain prospects of a trade war between Washington and Beijing, as well as the Fed's monetary policy. In addition, the dollar also receives support as a world reserve currency amid growing expectations of a recession in the global economy.
The focus of the market this week will be the speech of the head of the American regulator Jerome Powell at the traditional economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Investors continue to hope that the Central Bank will continue to lower interest rates amid increased fears of a recession in the United States. The University of Michigan consumer expectations index fell to 82.3 points in August from 90.5 points. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell the same as the previous indicator to the beginning of the current year to the level of 92.1 points from 98.4 points.
Perhaps, these extremely weak data were the reason that pushed up the American stock market as it once again inspired the markets with the hope that the Federal Reserve would not remain indifferent and would continue to cut interest rates.
In general, the situation in the markets remains extremely nervous and threatens to develop into a real collapse in the continuation of the previous fall in stock prices. Observing this, we can say that the market just insistently demands a decrease in the cost of borrowing, intimidating the Federal Reserve with the impending fall in the value of stocks of companies. In this case, the demand for the dollar will only grow, exacerbating the ability of American goods and services to compete in world markets.
We believe that this week may be decisive and force the American regulator to either decide to resume the process of lowering interest rates, or to refuse the pleasure of markets for the near future.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is balancing just below the level of 1.1100. If it overcomes it in the wake of some demand for risky assets, then the price may rise to 1.1135. But if she still fails to rise above this mark, she will turn around and continue to fall to 1.1025.
The USD/CAD pair is testing the level of 1.3260 and overcoming of which on the wave of attempts to restore crude oil prices may lead to a continued fall in the price to 1.3200.
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