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Thursday was hot for the euro. First, the August indices of business activity in France, Germany, and the euro area came out better than expected as a whole. The Manufacturing PMI of France is 51.0 versus 49.7 in July and the same German index is 43.6 versus 43.2 earlier, while in the euro area, the figure grew to 47.0 versus 46.5, which revised upward from 46.4. Services PMI for the euro area, in general, amounted to 53.4 against 53.2 in July. On this data, the euro jumped by almost 40 points. A few hours later, minutes were published from the last ECB meeting, which confirmed the regulator's intention to combine a further rate cut with the repurchase of bonds (QE) for the "best effect" in overcoming the expected crisis. From the peak of the day, the euro fell by 50 points. But in the end, the euro remained in the consolidation range of 1.1066-1.1120.
Today, the main event will be a speech at the Bankers Symposium in Jackson Hole by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, beginning at 14:00 London time. What Powell will talk about, and most importantly, in what tonality, remains a big mystery to the markets since Powell has repeatedly expressed contradictory things after which during the week his press office and board members laid out everything on the shelves. In predicting what the head of the Fed will say today, we use the opposite technique. The bottom line is that the main US institutions have already decided on the global policy regarding the national currency, which we have already mentioned more than once. The dollar should increase in the increasingly difficult geopolitical situation. A strong dollar is also needed to successfully attract investors in American debt, and it is also needed to facilitate the servicing of this public debt. for a number of other reasons, it is more profitable for the United States to have a strong national currency. Based on this, no matter what Jerome Powell says, the essence will be to ensure that investors understand the main idea: you need to buy dollars.
We are waiting for the euro at the Fibonacci level of 138.2% in the region of the level of 1.0980. Fixing the price below the level opens the next target at 1.0840, which is the Fibonacci level of 161.8%, near the lower line of the price channel.
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator touches the border with the territory of the "bears". The price is fixed below the indicator line of balance.
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