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After Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole, President Trump said: "As usual, the Fed has done nothing." Further, Trump, relying on the law on emergency economic powers, ordered US companies to leave China. The same speech Powell's speech was verified, different in style and content from previous speeches, its essence was to ensure that the Fed is ready to act anytime, ready to answer any outside calls, but does not promise to lower the rate in September, and most importantly, it does not promise to start the cycle of lowering the rate. Our Friday forecast regarding the tone of Powell's speech turned out to be correct, he said exactly as it should be said to maintain optimistic sentiments on the dollar. But investors heard what they wanted to hear – the rate will be lowered in September and will be reduced every subsequent meeting or investors just fulfilled the planned operations. We repeat – Trump, as the spokesman for the policy not only of the White House administration, but also of the Republican Party, and the economic establishment, cannot change his attitude to the national currency almost every month – today, he needs a strong dollar, tomorrow is weak, and the day after tomorrow is strong again. Moreover, the change in the value of the dollar relative to the euro will not help the US in the trade war with China. We believe that the Republican Party is waging a war for influence in the Fed itself, which is particularly confirmed by the White House's intention to change the rotation rules of the Fed's leadership. But in the forex market, the main players are democratic banks, which is a stumbling block for Donald Trump.
Let's turn to the monthly chart. The maximum of the current month is at the level of 1.1250 – the price touched the balance line on the 6th, after which it collapsed to a minimum of Friday to 1.1052. And for the development of medium-term price growth, it is necessary to overcome this balance line – shift it towards bullish sentiment.
On the way to this level, there are two more obstacles in front of the price – the line of the price channel on the daily chart in the area of 1.1172 and the MACD line near the Fibo level of 100.0% in the area of 1.1210. To make such a decision, investors should have stronger foundations than the neutral speech of the Fed chairman, for example, the failed data on GDP, consumer spending and durable goods orders, which will be released this week. Today, we publish the data for durable goods orders – orders for durable goods for July – the forecast is good: 1.1%.
On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator breaks into the zone of positive values, which indicates the intention of the market to compete with technical resistance. At the moment, the situation is neutral.
On the four-hour chart, the price fixed above the balance and MACD lines, Marlin in the growth zone. Well, we are waiting for the price to cope with the challenge thrown to itself.
To resume the decline in price, you need to return to the starting positions and gain a foothold at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1074).
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