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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.
The lower channel of linear regression: direction – sideways.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.
CCI: 123.5659
Last week, it became clear that London and Brussels will not be able to agree amicably. The "generous" offer of Boris Johnson to the European Union to cancel any attempts to create a physical border between Ireland and Northern Ireland was expected to be rejected by Donald Tusk. And the leaders of Germany and France did not give any signals to traders that there is at least some real hope for rapprochement in the issue of orderly Brexit. Only Angela Merkel gave a ghostly hope for Brexit with the "deal", saying that the parties can still agree. However, few of the market participants took her words seriously. The fact that "the parties can agree" is clear to everyone for a long time, only they cannot agree on the fact as of August 26, 2019. Based on this, Boris Johnson, who is actively preparing for a "hard" scenario, decided to resort to the last weapon against the Alliance – blackmail. The UK may refuse to pay £39 billion, which is due to the European Union for Brexit if the "deal" is not concluded. Thus, the Kingdom will save almost $50 billion, which can be used to support the economy in the transition period. It is difficult to say whether the European Union is afraid of losing the money and whether Johnson's statement that "the UK has the right to refuse payment" is legitimate. We have not heard any comments from EU officials on this matter. But it seems that Johnson has no more trump cards against the EU, so the Brexit locomotive still carries "No deal" at full speed.
The pound rose last week against the US currency, but this growth is corrective, due only to the need for bears to rest a little. No currency can fall constantly, the pound is no exception. However, given the fact that there were no changes in the Brexit procedure, there is no reason to assume the completion of the downward trend.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2207
S2 – 1.2146
S3 – 1.2085
Resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2268
R2 – 1.2329
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair continues the not too strong upward movement. Thus, today, it is recommended to trade to increase the pair pound/dollar with targets at 1.2268 and 1.2329, in small lots, as the downward trend may resume any moment.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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