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Yesterday, on Tuesday, euro-neutral economic data came out; Eurozone's business sentiment index ZEW rose from -43.6 to -22.4 in September, while US industrial production rose by 0.6% in August with an increase in capacity utilization to 77.9% from 77.5%. But the euro was bought out before the Federal Reserve meeting today, the single currency's growth reached 70 points. As we recall, the first large-scale redemption of the euro took place in the US session on the day of the ECB meeting on September 12, then the daily range was 160 points. The situation is such that growth will continue, whatever the decisions of the FOMC on monetary policy. Markets expect a further quarter cut with a 55% probability. An alarming figure, since yesterday the market probability, in accordance with futures on federal funds, was 65%, and a week ago at 90%.
The rate, in all likelihood, can still be lowered, since the Fed literally promised to do it, but further forecasts and comments can be quite hawkish. And indeed: economic growth continues (Atlanta Fed's forecast for GDP for the 3rd quarter is 1.8%), inflation is growing (the core CPI in August rose from 2.2% yoy to 2.4% yoy).
So, we are waiting for the euro to grow to a magnetic point on the daily chart at 1.1155 formed by the line of the price channel and the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. A little lower is the indicator line of MACD, which will also serve as resistance. In this area, according to our main scenario, investors can start taking profits - closing purchases from September 3 to September 17. The price exit above the resistance may continue to grow to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% at the price of 1.1215. Here are the strong record levels of the second decade of August, the second half of July, mid-June and earlier periods.
On a four-hour chart, the price is above the balance line and the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. The general market sentiment for today is to buy.
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