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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency, consolidating above the correction level of 127.2% (1.1024) and growing towards the upper line of the downward trend channel. A reversal in favor of the US dollar was made near the upper line of the channel. Thus, in the next few hours, the euro/dollar pair may fall again to the Fibo level of 127.2%. There was no signal to buy. I have already said that buying a pair near the upper line of the downward channel is very risky and completely impractical. For purchases, it is necessary that the trend changed to the opposite. Now, it is still necessary to consider the sale of the euro and the purchase of the US dollar.
All the attention of traders remains fully focused on the results of the Fed meeting, which will be announced in the evening. However, on Monday, the EUR/USD pair significantly decreased, and on Tuesday – it increased significantly. Today – falls again. Thus, it is impossible to draw an unambiguous conclusion in the question of what traders expect from the Fed. Moreover, traders are now showing that there is no unity in the question of reaction to the evening speech by Jerome Powell, the accompanying FOMC statement and the FOMC economic forecast. The first three trading days of the week are multidirectional movements. Accordingly, we can observe something similar today and tomorrow.
Probably, this behavior of traders is because in recent days, there are more doubts about the question and whether there is any reason for the Fed to cut the rate in September? Recall that there are several main indicators of the state of the economy, which is guided by the Fed when making decisions on amendments to the monetary policy of the United States. GDP, inflation, labor market, unemployment. Unemployment in America is at its lowest level in many years -3.7%. GDP – is at a good level of about 2% per annum. The state of the labor market is often measured by Nonfarm Payrolls, which has only shown twice the number of new non-agricultural jobs less than 100,000 per month. That is, by and large, a reduction in the rate, if it takes place, will be necessary only to make it easier for the country to confront the European Union and China. With the former, America is on the brink of a trade war and could be said to have already entered a currency war. With the second, the US is in the midst of both a trade and currency war. Thus, reducing the rate, and not one-time, is necessary first of all to Donald Trump, who draws the country into trade wars, which now need to be won, and this can be done only if the dollar becomes cheaper against the yuan and the euro.
What to expect today from the euro/dollar currency pair?
On September 18, I expect a further fall of the euro/dollar pair in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.0918 or 1.0927) on the new signal of closing below the level of 127.2%. This is the conclusion that allows you to make an indicator and graphical analysis. However, I do not recommend losing sight of the inflation report in the European Union and, of course, the evening summing up of the Fed meeting. It seems that there will be surprises today. Let me also remind you that you should not buy the EUR/USD pair before it breaks out of the downward trend channel.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
Today, I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.0927 if a new consolidation is performed under the level of 1.1024. A stop-loss order above the level of 1.1029.
It will be possible to buy the pair after the close above the downward trend channel.
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