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GBP/USD – 4H.
The British pound performed consolidation above the correction level of 38.2% (1.2501), but as it turned out later, the breakdown was false, and traders could not hold the British pound above this level on Friday, September 20. The pound/dollar pair closed at the Fibo level of 38.2% and reversed in favor of the US currency. An upward channel is also formed, which shows the trend of the last days. Already today, the pound can leave this channel through its lower line, which will mean the desire of traders to move to sales.
The crisis of a political nature is increasingly engulfing the UK. This is the conclusion that can be drawn from recent events. A week ago, the leader of the Labor Party and the opposition of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn, looked like a man capable of stopping Brexit "No Deal" and enjoying the support of most parliamentarians. Boris Johnson did not enjoy 100% support even within his party. But as it turned out, everything was not as smooth as it should be in the Labor camp. We can say with confidence that Brexit introduced a split not only in the political sphere of the United Kingdom but also in each party. Andrew Fisher, the closest adviser to Jeremy Corbyn, resigned on Saturday, September 21. This is due to the position of Corbyn on Brexit, or rather the lack thereof. Fisher accused Corbyn of "lack of competence, professionalism, and human decency." These are beautiful words that do not clarify the essence of Fisher's displeasure with the leader of the Labor Party. More precisely: Jeremy Corbyn, who has led the party since before Brexit, does not have a clear position on this issue. That is, Corbyn has repeatedly stated that the situation requires a second referendum. However, as it turned out, a certain part of the party does not like this formulation. Deputies want to clearly understand and realize in what direction their party is moving, what Brexit they want to achieve. Corbyn does not give such a position, believing that it is the people who must once again decide the fate of the state.
Thus, the fact is obvious: in both main parties of the country, there is a split. Many conservatives do not support the position of their leader Johnson, and 20 members of the party had to leave its ranks. The Labor Party is displeased with the absence of Corbyn's position. This is another bad news for the UK. In the period when the deputies must unite to finally decide how to implement Brexit, in practice, it turns out that more parties and individual deputies profess different political views, and the majority opinion does not need the same opinion. It turns out that the parliament unanimously blocks the deal by Teresa May, Johnson's Brexit "No Deal", but cannot propose an alternative (by majority vote). Brexit runs the risk of drag on for years to come.
What to expect from the pound/dollar currency pair today?
The pound/dollar currency pair has completed the closing under the level of 38.2% (1.2501). Thus, today I expect a close under the upward channel and a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% (1.2293). The pound is at risk of falling back although deputies managed to push the Brexit "No Deal" a bit.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2668 and a stop-loss under the level of 1.2501 if a new close is performed above the Fibo level of 38.2%.
I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.2308 after closing after the upward channel, with the stop-loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2%.
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