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Investors were extremely disappointed with preliminary data on business activity indexes in Europe, which perfectly demonstrates the decline in the single European currency. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector decreased from 47.0 to 45.6, although it was supposed to grow to 47.3. Thus, it shows that there is a threat of recession in the eurozone. The index of business activity in the service sector decreased from 53.5 to 52.0, while they expected a decrease only to 53.3. As a result, the composite index of business activity decreased from 51.9 to 50.4. But it should have remained unchanged. So it is not surprising that as soon as the data were published, the single European currency immediately fell.
When preliminary data on business activity indices in the United States were published, market participants took them quite calmly. Largely for the reason that they did not differ much from forecasts. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector did not remain unchanged, but rose from 50.3 to 51.0, which removes the question of the possibility of a recession, since this indicator is an excellent indicator of further economic dynamics. However, the index of business activity in the service sector, which was supposed to grow from 50.7 to 51.5, grew only to 50.9. All this allowed the composite business activity index to increase from 50.7 to 51.0. They were waiting for growth to 51.2. So in general, data came out, although positive, but slightly worse than expected.
Composite Business Activity Index (US):
Today, the calendar is almost empty, except for S&P/CaseShiller data on housing prices in the United States, whose growth rates may accelerate from 2.1% to 2.2%. The data itself is not as significant, so you should not expect any serious reaction. Nevertheless, the general positive background for the dollar will continue, which will affect quotes.
S&P/CaseShiller (US) Housing Price Index:
As I wrote above, the EUR/USD pair managed to break through the psychological level of 1.1000 amid the release of data, but the joy of the sellers was short-lived and the pullback process began at noon, returning us back to the previously passed level. Considering what is happening in general terms, we see that the recovery process in some way exists, but the protracted amplitude still retains the boundaries in the form of coordinates of 1.0936 - the lowest point and 1.1080 - a variable amplitude ceiling.
It is likely to suggest that the initial consideration is based on a possible fluctuation within 1.0966/1.1000, where the focus of attention is on the price consolidation points. The subsequent method proceeds from the first, where the work goes on the breakdown of the formed boundaries.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
• Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.1000 (not a puncture shadow).
• We consider short positions in case of price consolidation lower than 1.0966 (not a puncture shadow).
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators on hourly and daily periods tend to decrease. Minute intervals are variable in nature.
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