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GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair made another impressive leap up to the correctional level of 50.0% (1.2668). The pair's rebound from this level worked in favor of the US currency and began to fall in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% (1.2501). The growing divergence on October 14 is not observed. The pound/dollar pair is starting to frankly storm as the new Judgment Day for the pound and the whole of Great Britain is approaching.
The information background for the pound/dollar pair remains neutral. It is neutral, despite the rise of the British currency at the end of last week by 500 points. No reports are confirming the progress in the negotiations announced by the Prime Ministers of Great Britain Boris Johnson and Prime Ministers of Ireland Leo Varadkar. That is, not a single message from the European Union, not a single comment from representatives of the European Parliament, the European Council, the European Commission. Thus, I believe that the pound has collected all kinds of advances from traders, which now need to be worked out. If there is no encouraging information confirming that London and Brussels can indeed agree and it will happen at the summit on October 17-18, then the pound will begin to move back to the zone from which the unprecedented growth began.
I don't see any factors that would increase the likelihood of implementing Brexit "With Deal" in the past week. Both Brussels and London do not voice any details in the negotiation process. Officials of the EU and the Kingdom only regularly state in the press about the results of one or another stage of negotiations. Ordinary traders do not know any details. Thus, it is impossible to exclude the possibility that the parties are close to signing the deal. But we will learn about this only after the EU summit. If we assess only the facts and verified information, the picture remains unflattering, and everything goes to the fact that we will witness another postponement of Brexit and additional 3-4 months of negotiations.
The outlook for the pound is now completely through the prism of "Brexit", but to be honest, I believe that last week's growth of the pound has already completely played out all the most optimistic scenarios. He can leave his current position even higher if the deal is concluded on October 17-18, and it is approved by the British Parliament on October 19, which may also cause problems. Theresa May at one time also managed to negotiate with the European Union but failed to negotiate with the deputies of her own Parliament. Thus, the story may repeat itself with Boris Johnson. And Johnson has more opponents in Parliament than opponents of Theresa May. Thus, his deal will be particularly picky.
What to expect from the pound/dollar currency pair today?
The pound/dollar pair rebounded from the correction level of 50.0% (1.2668). Thus, I expect a fall to the level of 1.2501 today, and a close below this level will allow us to expect a further decline in the direction of the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.2293), which I believe is the most likely scenario for the coming days.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend buying the pair with a target of 1.2836 if the consolidation is performed above the Fibo level of 50.0% with the stop-loss order below the level of 1.2668.
I recommend considering selling the pair with a target of 1.2501 today since a rebound from the level of 50.0% was made.
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