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The British pound grew by 42 points yesterday amid a neutral external background - the EU was considering a request to postpone the Brexit date, the dollar index slightly fell (-0.05%). The drivers were oil (2.93%) and gold (0.30%). There was optimism in the stock markets: Britain's FTSE100 at 0.67%, the US S&P 500 by 0.28%.
If the EU approves the postponement of Brexit, and if Boris Johnson does not back down, re-elections will be held in the UK, and this is not good for the pound. If the request is not approved (which is almost unbelievable), then the pound will face a deeper and longer fall.
The signal level to fall to the nearest bearish target at 1.2744 is the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.2814. Consolidation below it opens the way to movement to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2548.
Formally, the pound has not yet exhausted its potential for growth. Although, there was a large-scale closing of positions on Tuesday while yesterday's growth was at volumes above average. New optimistic events may raise the pound to 1.3062, to the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. Here, divergence will form on the Marlin oscillator and the pound will have only one way to go, down.
On a four-hour chart, the price is held by the balance line, the Marlin oscillator in a falling position - in the zone of negative numbers. Departure of the price below the MACD line (1.2814) will be the first signal for a further decline, and consolidation under 1.2744 opens the prospect of 1.2548.
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