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On Monday, the euphoria in world markets regarding the early conclusion of a new trade agreement between the United States and China decreased slightly, which was facilitated by US President D. Trump once again.
It can be recalled that last week the news that not only would an agreement be reached on trade between the States and the PRC, but, most importantly, the message that the negotiating parties may decide not to raise previously announced customs duties, led to increased optimism and widespread demand on risky assets. On this wave, US major stock indexes tested the next highs, gold quotes broke out of the narrow range in which they were from the beginning of September, and the dollar received significant support.
However, on Monday, D. Trump in his favorite manner announced that duties might not be canceled. Moreover, the markets suddenly suddenly became concerned about the escalation of the crisis in Hong Kong, where the creeping anti-Chinese confrontation, supported by the States, has been going on for more than a month.
Thus, this led to a correction in the stock markets and a slight weakening of the US currency. Although today at Asian trading, the ICE dollar index is recovering and the yields on US Treasuries, which support the dollar, are growing again. Such positive dynamics is associated with the expectation of Trump's speech at the New York Economic Club today, where the country's trade policy will be discussed. It can be assumed that if the president does not put pressure on the "pedal" of trade contradictions between the States and the PRC, but, on the contrary, expresses confidence in the speedy conclusion of a new trade agreement, this will lead to a new wave of optimism in the markets for the resumption of growth in local stock indices and the exchange rate dollar and falling gold prices.
It is expected that this version of Trump's speech is most likely because he needs victories and positive news for the political struggle for the possibility of re-election as president. Back in the summer of this year, we believed that it was this factor that would force him to compromise with the PRC. The implementation of such a scenario, as mentioned above, will positively affect the dollar and the overall demand for risky assets.
Forecast of the day:
EUR/USD pair implements a double top reversal pattern. We expect the pair to continue to fall to 1.1000, and then to 1.0985 after the price drops below the level of 1.1025.
Gold quotes are below the local minimum of October 1 of this year. We expect the continuation of decline in prices and we consider it possible to sell gold with local goals of 1444.20 and 1438.00.
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