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The euro grew by 21 points on Thursday, overcoming the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The reason for this was the data on GDP growth for the fourth quarter by the expected 2.1% along with a fall in personal consumption spending; real consumer spending fell from 3.2% to 1.8% for the fourth quarter, although in the structure of GDP, sales increased from 2.1% to 3.2%, indicating an increase in inflation and a weak GDP base. As a result, the market probability of a rate cut at the June meeting increased in one day from 36.5% to 41.2%, while a week earlier this expectation was 19.5%. Yields on 5-year US government bonds rose from 1.388% to 1.414% this morning - American securities began to sell - since the yield is inversely dependent on purchases.
Today, eurozone GDP data for the fourth quarter will be released - a forecast of 0.2%, and inflation for January - a forecast for the core CPI of 1.2% y/y against 1.3% y/y earlier. The general CPI index can grow from 1.3% y/y to 1.4% y/y. US data on personal spending and consumer income for December and inflation data on personal consumption spending (PCE) will be released in the evening, which is important for comparing with yesterday's data on consumer spending. The forecasts are good: 0.3% for revenue, 0.3% for expenses, no forecast for PCE. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago region for the current month is expected to remain unchanged at 48.9 points.
An important index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector (ISM Manufacturing PMI) for January will be released on Monday, the forecast for which is 48.0 versus 47.2 earlier; industrial orders for December on Tuesday, with a forecast at 0.7% against -0.7 % in November. On Wednesday, the PMI in the services sector is projected to grow from 52.8 to 53.2. On Friday, Non-Farm Employment Change for January is projected at 156 thousand against 145 thousand in December.
All this indicates to us that investors will not rush to sell the dollar.
On the four-hour chart, the growth of the euro stopped at the MACD line at the point of coincidence with the line of balance. It is very possible that from current levels the price will return to yesterday's low, which will restore the falling movement of the euro with targets at 1.0986, 1.0925. A rise in price to 1.1080 is possible in the case of today's obviously weak US data. But the price in this case must first be consolidated above the top of yesterday.
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