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Hello!
Despite the excellent consumer price index report from the UK yesterday, the pound/dollar currency pair declined.
It seems that the market simply ignored the British statistics. This happens and has been happening more often lately. However, the GBP/USD pair reacted to the US data, and since the US releases came out better than expected, it was the dollar that received support.
Reports on retail sales in the UK will be published today at 10:30 (London time). This time, we will see the reaction of market participants. Usually, the pound reacts quite violently to its statistics, which can not be said about the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc.
As noted in the previous review of EUR/USD, the US should pay attention to the initial applications for unemployment benefits and the production index of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
Daily
As you can see on the daily chart, the pair is trading in the range of 1.2870-1.3070 for the thirteenth day in a row. I believe that the exit from this range can determine the further direction of the quote. However, it will not be easy to get out.
Below 1.2870 is the 200 exponential moving average, which can provide support to the quote and return it above 1.2870. Thus, fixing a false breakdown of the lower border of the range. But it still went here - one 200 EMA.
To rise to 1.3070, the pound bulls need to overcome 89 EMA (1.2936), the Tenkan line (1.2969), Kijun (1.3039), as well as the 50 simple moving average, which is located at 1.3053. Do not forget that in addition to all of the above, the pair will have to return above the psychological level of 1.3000 and the technical level of 1.3047. In general, such a breakthrough up requires a powerful driver and it is unclear where it will come from.
It is clear that sooner or later the pound/dollar pair will leave the designated range. Technically, there are more chances to go down. If the 200 EMA is not able to provide the necessary support, we should expect the pair to decline to the area of 1.2767, where the minimum trading values were shown.
If the bulls on the pound can break through the resistance of sellers near 1.3070, the next growth targets will be 1.3140 and 1.3210.
H4
If the current 4-hour candle has a similar shape, this can be considered a signal for purchases. In this scenario, you can try to buy with small goals in the area of 1.2975-1.2995, where there are 50 EMA and 89 EMA. If there are bearish candlestick signals in the designated area, you should turn around and open sales. You can look for further targets for opening short positions in the price zone of 1.3000-1.3015. Looking at the movements that the pair demonstrates, before opening positions in each of the sides, it is better to enlist the support of confirming signals in the form of characteristic patterns of Japanese candlesticks.
H1
As you can see, there are already reversal candlestick signals and the pound is strengthening. It's about UK retail sales, which turned out to be better than experts' forecasts. Today, statistics works.
If you buy on the market now, it is better to set goals near 1.2970, where you should track candlestick signals for a decrease, and if they appear, sell them.
Good luck!
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