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Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.
CCI: 129.3022
The British pound paired with the US currency resumed its upward movement and broke the moving average line. Thus, the traders made another attempt to begin the formation of the upward trend. However, we believe that this attempt is doomed to failure. As we have said in previous articles, there are no fundamental or macroeconomic growth factors for the pound right now. Moreover, there are a huge number of risks and factors for the fall of the British currency, which is called "right now". Thus, we believe that already at the current price levels or slightly higher, a downward reversal will occur, and the pound/dollar pair will not be able to overcome the previous local maximum - 1.3069. By the way, it is not overcoming this level that will eloquently show the weakness of the bulls. The problem for the pair and all traders is that the bears do not have a strong desire to sell the British currency. All this leads to multidirectional movements without a pronounced trend. Of course, we also do not recommend trying to guess or "catch" a reversal. It is best to wait for the Heiken Ashi indicator to turn down, and then for the price to reverse below the moving average line. However, in general, the downward trend is now extremely weak, and the lower linear regression channel may begin to turn sideways in the next few days.
The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair is now reduced to the fact that the European Union has decided on its position in negotiations with the UK legally. The European Commission has adopted a mandate that Michel Barnier and his team will negotiate with British diplomats. And judging by this mandate, it will be extremely difficult for the parties to agree. It is this factor that we consider the greatest risk for the UK economy, as well as for the British pound. Thus, it is possible that now market participants have taken a wait-and-see position and are waiting for official negotiations between London and Brussels to begin, waiting for information from these negotiations in order to draw accurate conclusions and build a trading strategy for the pound/dollar pair for the next few months. Thus, traders can only expect either new macroeconomic statistics, which are planned for this week or the beginning of March and the start of negotiations between London and Brussels.
From a technical point of view, the Heiken Ashi indicator continues to color the bars purple, so the local upward movement continues. At the same time, it will be very difficult to overcome the Murray levels of "7/8"-1.3031 and "8/8"-1.3062, near which the price turned down last time. Especially without macroeconomic data.
The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair over the past 5 days is 95 points and is characterized as "average" in strength. According to the current level of volatility, the working channel on February 26 will be limited to the levels of 1.2907 and 1.3097. A new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate a possible resumption of the downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 - 1.3000
S2 - 1.2970
S3 - 1.2939
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 - 1.3031
R2 - 1.3062
R3 - 1.3092
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair continues to move up. Thus, it is recommended to resume selling the pound with the targets of 1.2909 and 1.2878 only after the price is fixed below the moving average. You can buy the British currency with the targets of 1.3031 and 1.3062 since the fundamental factors remain on the side of the US currency.
In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustrations:
The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.
The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.
CCI - blue line in the indicator window.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
Possible variants of the price movement:
Red and green arrows.
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