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Apparently, it is too early to say that the peak of the coronavirus epidemic has already passed. According to the results of yesterday, the number of new cases of infection slightly increased compared to Monday. Nevertheless, there is still hope, as the record set on April 4 is still far from being repeated. In any case, this sad statistics stopped the European currency's growth, which initially increased on a wave of optimism and hope that the epidemic will soon be in the past.
In fact, except for the hope of ending the coronavirus epidemic, there were no other reasons for the euro's banal growth. Thus, the rate of decline in industrial production in Germany accelerated from -0.9% to -1.2%. And this is only in February. In all likelihood, the March data will show a catastrophic failure of industrial production. However, Italy tried to smooth out this negative with its retail sales, the growth rate of which accelerated in February from 1.5% to 5.7%. However, we must admit that the significance of Italian data is significantly less than that of German statistics. In addition, retail sales data is still for February. However you look at it, the situation changed dramatically in March, and there is no doubt that we will see a crazy drop in retail sales.
Industrial production (Germany):
But US data suddenly turned out to be significantly better than forecasts, as the number of open vacancies in JOLTS decreased from 7,012 thousand to 6,882 thousand. But they predicted a decrease of as much as 5.6 million. So, the US labor market felt good back in February.
Number of open vacancies JOLTS (United States):
Today, markets will only respond to reports about the coronavirus epidemic. No macroeconomic data will be published, and the text of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting is of no interest at all. After all, all the decisions have already been made during two emergency meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, and since then the situation has changed so rapidly that all the forecasts and plans of that time can be thrown into the bin.
From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a correction relative to the downward course of the past week. The point of variable support in the current movement was the support level of 1.0775, where the countdown towards the 1.0925 mark began. The final stroke was a partial recovery relative to the correction, where the price almost reached the level of 1.0850.
In terms of general analysis of the trading schedule, it is worth highlighting a consistent pattern in the form of inertia, which has been dragging on since the beginning of January.
We can assume a temporary fluctuation relative to the recovery cycle, where the key coordinates will be the values 1.0850/1.0925. In fact, the trading method can be selected both within the conditional range and on its breakout.
We will specify all of the above into trading signals:
- We consider long positions higher than 1.0885, towards 1.0915. Major transactions are higher than 1.0930.
- We consider short positions lower than 1.0850, with the prospect of a move to 1.0800-1.0775.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see a variable buy signal due to the recent surge in long positions. Daytime periods tend to be a neutral signal than to buy.
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