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Although the USD/CAD pair grew at the end of the last five-day trading session, the relatively long upper shadow of the last candle kept the probability that the quote will decline this week. At the time of writing this article, this is exactly what is observed. We will move on to the technical picture for the pair of North American dollars a little later, but for now, it is worth noting that yesterday's FOMC minutes did not give market participants new food for thought and the trading on April 8 ended without a certain pronounced direction.
Daily
As you can see, at yesterday's trading, the pair rose to the level of 1.4080, but the bulls could not hold the course near this mark and retreat. As a result, the candle for April 8 had a very long upper shadow and a small bullish body. Usually, after the appearance of such candles, there is a decrease in the quote, but the calendar of today's eventful macroeconomic events can affect the technique, and to a large extent determine the results of today's trading.
From Canada, at 13:30 (London time), data on the labor market will be received, which will be an important factor for the currency of the Maple Leaf country.
From American statistics, it is worth highlighting the initial applications for unemployment benefits, as well as the producer price index. These reports will also be published at 13:30 London time. Separately, it is necessary to note the speech that will be delivered at 15:00 (London time) by the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.
I believe that these events will significantly affect the price dynamics of the USD/CAD pair. If you are guided by the technical picture, a true breakdown of the support of 1.3920 will indicate a bearish market. The bulls have much larger and more complex tasks for this pair. To increase the rate, traders need to break through the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which runs at 1.4146. After that, raise the quote to the strong resistance of sellers near 1.4280 and pass this level. But this is not all. The breakout of resistance at 1.4348 will significantly convince us of the bullish prospects for the USD/CAD pair. However, even higher, as we can see, there are strong and important resistance levels of 1.4555 and 1.4666. Given yesterday's candle, I am more inclined to a downward scenario. Let's see what the situation is on the lower timeframes.
H4
At the moment, the pair is trading in a relatively narrow range. Strong support is expected in the case of a decline to 1.3920, where in addition to the level itself, there is also a 200 exponential moving average. Resistance can be provided by 89 EMA and 50 MA, which are located in the price area of 1.4092-1.4117.
H1
According to the hourly chart, the pair is going to follow in a northerly direction. This is indicated by the highlighted Doji candle, after which growth is observed.
The main trading idea for the USD/CAD pair is sales, which are better considered after the growth in the price zone of 1.4090-1.4120. You can look for more attractive prices for opening short positions if the price rises to the area of 1.4260-1.4280.
For those who have a bullish view of this instrument, it is aggressive and risky to try to buy from current prices. It is less risky to open long positions after a short-term decline in the price zone of 1.3940-1.3920.
Good luck!
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