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EUR/USD. 1H
The euro/dollar continues to trade inside the downward channel on the hourly chart on April 27. The pair reached its lower limit and rebounded from it on Friday, which formed another reference point of this channel. The pair's quotes are now approaching its upper line, from which a rebound could also follow. Thus, the pair's prospects for Monday-Tuesday come down to how traders will behave in the area of the upper line of the downward channel. Several options are possible at once, which will be considered at the end of the article.
From our point of view, the euro may continue to remain under pressure from traders, as macroeconomic statistics from the European Union are weak, but most importantly, the European Council failed to agree on sources of funding for a stimulus package of around two trillion euros. And if it was not possible to agree, then no assistance will be provided yet. The longer it takes to resolve this issue, the more potentially the EU economy will contract. This is the main fundamental factor that can force market participants to start new purchases of the US currency. The second main factor in the strength of the dollar is the blind faith of traders and investors in this currency. These factors can be crucial for the pair on Monday and Tuesday. However, everything could change near the middle of the week, as both the EU and US will hold their own respective central bank meetings this week. Such high-profile events can bring new and potentially very important information to the currency market, which can be taken into account by market participants. Thus, the second half of the week can be very hot, given the large number of important macroeconomic reports.
Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for April 27 and one additional option:
1) In order for bears to resume the downward movement, you need to bounce off the top line of the downward channel or just turn down near it. Such a reversal or rebound, followed by consolidation below the critical Kijun-sen line (1.0805) is a signal to sell the euro while aiming for the first support level for the 4-hour chart at 1.0733. The potential to Take Profit in this case will be about 80 points.
2) The second option - bullish - involves overcoming the downward channel with a subsequent upward movement and changing the trend to an upward one. In this case, traders are advised to buy the euro with the aim of the upper line of the Ichimoku Senkou Span B cloud, which is a strong resistance. The potential to Take Profit in this case is about 60 points.
3) The Third option does not imply a trend movement and a test. A flat is also possible in the first two trading days of the week, and if the pair moves along the Kijun-sen line without a clear rebound from the upper line of the channel or without a clear anchor above it, then neither buyers nor sellers will receive a signal.
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