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Gold behaves the same way: it is constantly searching for an ideal environment that combines a weak US dollar and low rates of the global debt market. At the end of June, the precious metal found all this, which allowed it to climb to the maximum height since October 2012. One more step and the psychologically important mark of $ 1,800 per ounce will be subdued, and then the record highs will be just around the corner.
According to Goldman Sachs, gold will be able to reach $ 2000 per ounce within the next 12 months. Citigroup believes that thanks to the influx of capital into the ETF, the precious metal can reach the same level in the middle of 2021. JP Morgan recommends that its clients buy the asset that gives the greatest return in terms of negative interest rates. Indeed, gold does not generate interest income, so when bond rates are high, its share in investment portfolios is reduced. In times of recessions, market players doubt the bright future of the economy, buy protective assets, which contributes to a decrease in profitability and an increase in XAU/USD quotes. This was the case in 2011 when the precious metal reached a record high, and it is happening now, which allows us to talk about its undiscovered potential.
Dynamics of gold and real US bond yields
It is no wonder that with the number of people infected with coronavirus rising to the highest levels in the world and some American states, investors consider the current economic recovery fragile. At any moment, things can get worse, including due to the second wave of COVID-19 or the resumption of the US-China trade war. The epidemiological situation in Europe and the Middle Kingdom looks significantly better than in the United States, while the rapid growth of business activity in Germany and the Eurozone contributes to the continuation of the northern campaign of EUR/USD. Given the share of the euro in the structure of the USD index (57%), the latter is steadily falling against this background, which is another good news for gold.
Dynamics of business activity
Gradually, faith in the precious metal began to return to hedge funds, which at the end of the five days to June 16 for the first time in the last four weeks increased their net speculative longs. As a result, the indicator managed to leave the area of annual lows. As for ETFs, interest in their products is not going to cool down. Commerzbank estimates that the reserves of SPDR Gold Shares, the largest exchange-traded specialized fund working with gold, increased to 1,166 tons, the highest level since April 2013. Over the past three months, the indicator has increased by 258 tons.
Thus, the favorable external background, including the fall in real debt market rates and the weakness of the US dollar, as well as the inexhaustible inflow of capital into precious metal-oriented ETFs, allow it to look to the future with its head held high. Gold is confidently moving towards the target of 161.8% on the pattern of harmonious trading AB=CD, which is located near the $ 1,830 per ounce mark. Longs formed in early June from the levels of $ 1675 and $ 1700 should be held and increased on pullbacks.
Gold, the daily chart
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