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Hello, dear colleagues!
At yesterday's trading, the US dollar was again in demand as a safe asset. Market participants were alarmed by the new surge in the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, in the United States of America, the daily increase in infected people was about 60 thousand people. This is the largest number of cases of coronavirus per day since the beginning of the epidemic in the United States. The main centers of infection are still observed in Texas and California, where local authorities were forced to impose some restrictions.
Also, investors were concerned that the financial affairs of President Trump have every chance to go to the table of the US Supreme Court, where some unpleasant details of the American leader's financial operations may emerge. In general, it should be noted that the clouds over the 45th President of the United States are gradually thickening and it will be very difficult for him to stay for a second term.
Yesterday's data on initial applications for unemployment benefits came out better than expected and also provided support to the US currency. Today, market participants will focus on data on the us producer price index, which will be known at 13:30 London time.
Daily
Due to yesterday's price movement, the technical picture for the main currency pair has also changed. The initial rise of the euro/dollar was limited to a strong technical level of 1.1370, after meeting with which the exchange rate turned to decline and Thursday's trading ended at 1.1283.
Thus, history repeated itself. Euro bulls once again failed to gain a foothold above the important level of 1.1300 and break through strong resistance from sellers near 1.1350. All this increases the chances of changing the course and returning the pair to a downward trend. The closing of the week and the final candle on weekly will be very important, but we will talk about this on Monday.
Today, the nearest target at the top can be safely considered yesterday's maximum values at 1.1370. Although to be honest, it is very unlikely that the quote will grow again to this value, much less exceed it. I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that Thursday's trading closed under the Kijun (blue) line of the Ichimoku indicator. This factor is not at all in favor of bullish sentiment for EUR/USD.
If you determine the nearest targets at the bottom, they are near 1.1215. As can be clearly seen on the chart, here is the area of trading. It is quite possible that from here there will be those who want to buy a single European currency. However, given the last day of weekly trading and fixing positions, this scenario does not look promising.
H4
Moving on to smaller time intervals, describing them, I will offer my personal trading recommendations, and whether to agree with them or not is an exclusively personal matter.
So, at the moment of writing, the pair is trying to break through the 50 simple (blue) and 89 exponential (black) moving averages. If the breakdown of 50 MA and 89 EMA turns out to be true, and 2-3 candles close under these moves in a row, you can try selling with goals in the area of 1.1220-1.1210 on the rollback to them. By the way, at 1.1207, there is a 200 exponential, and below it is an important level of 1.1200. I can assume that from the price zone of 1.1220-1.1200, there will be a rebound in the price up, so anyone can try to buy EUR/USD from here, but it is better with small goals.
Despite the fact that, in my own opinion, the greater priority today is for sales, in the case of the inability of bears to push 50 MA and 89 EMA and the appearance of a reversal bullish candle over them, you can carefully buy, but also with small goals, in the area of 1.1300-1.1310.
Today, on the last day of weekly trading, you should be especially careful not to open deals just to open them. It is not necessary to transfer open items on Monday! I recommend entering the market only after the appearance of confirming candle signals, quickly pick up your own (20-30 points), and go for the weekend.
Good luck!
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