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Before the release of data on inflation, retail sales and industrial production in the US, markets are trading in a range with a slight overweight of bullish sentiment. A number of Trump's Executive orders to introduce additional stimulus measures are assessed with cautious optimism, in any case, stock indices have resumed growth, demand for bonds is declining, gold is correcting after rising to historic highs.
NZD/USD
The ANZ business optimism index declined in August from -31.8p to -42.4p, the forecast from -8.9p to -17p. As ANZ notes, the findings add to the unpleasant conclusion that recovery from the lifting of restrictive measures may have exhausted itself.
On Wednesday, March 12, the next meeting of the RBNZ on monetary policy will be held. There is a fairly high probability that the RBNZ will expand QE from $ 60 billion to $ 90 billion, or at least to $ 75 billion. Most of the forecast indicators have deteriorated since July. investment is expected to decline, and corporate profits are expected to decline even against the background of higher capacity utilization than in April-may. The most worrying indicator is the state of the labor market, and job cuts continue. Deflationary pressures remain, and inflation expectations are low and have worsened compared to July.
ANZ is confident that expanding the buyback program to 90 billion over 18 months will provide the best balance, and the RBNZ will take measures to curb the exchange rate of NZD. The latter circumstance plays in favor of a deep correction after the strong growth that began in the second half of March.
The net short position has increased slightly according to the CFTC report, and the estimated fair price is turning confidently downwards. As a result, the probability of a kiwi correction is growing.
The support of 0.6580/90 is holding back the fall so far, but based on the change in fundamental indicators, we should expect another successful testing. The bottom can be found in the 0.6490/6520 zone, but if the global tension continues to grow, the NZD will not stay at this level either.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is looking better than the New Zealand dollar and it still has a chance of further growth. The target price is still heading upwards, largely due to the AUD being the only commodity currency that speculators continued to cut short, which is currently down to near zero. Even if AUD does not continue to rally, it is a good sign for the AUD/NZD cross-instrument to look forward to further upside.
At the same time, there were no special reasons for optimism. The growth of commodity currencies is explained by both the weakness of the dollar and the general wave of optimism that covered the markets after the first "post-like" reports in June-July. The speed of economic recovery was not as high as expected, moreover, most of the forecasts are revised downward.
For example, the RBA has presented updated scenarios for economic recovery, and according to them, the unemployment rate will decline more slowly, reach a peak of about 10% at the end of this year (instead of the expected 9%) and fall only to 7% by the end of 2022. That is, even after 2 years, the unemployment rate will be higher than before the beginning of the pandemic.
As a result, the deterioration of forecasts for the labor market forced the RBA to revise down the forecasts for wage growth and inflation, while the return of inflation to the target range of 2-3% is not expected at all in the foreseeable future. This sad conclusion is observed in all three forecast scenarios of the RBA, including the optimistic one.
On Friday, the head of the RBA is expected to speak in parliament, where it will reveal the plans of the RBA in case of a change in the economy. With forecasts deteriorating, the probability of additional stimulus measures is growing. All these considerations will put pressure on the Aussie rate one way or another, and the continued growth of AUD/USD becomes less and less likely. The chances of renewal of the 0.7242 high are decreasing, while the formation of a top and a decline to the support zone of 0.7050/80 seems more likely.
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