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On a good note, it doesn't matter at all how the data on open vacancies in the United States came out yesterday. They would still be regarded as extremely positive which is what actually happened. So the single European currency lost in value which is quite predictable. But with the pound, everything is much more interesting. Initially, like the single European currency, the pound was declining, but then, it completely won back all its losses, and just froze in place. The reason for this behavior was a serious revision of forecasts for the labor market. In particular, on applications for unemployment benefits, the growth of which was seriously reduced. If at first it was assumed that their number should increase by 70 thousand, then in the second half of the day, everyone began to say that they would increase by only 5 thousand. In general, the market was prepared in advance for the next circus, which, recently, only gets to describe what is happening with the British statistics on the labor market.
Well, the data on open vacancies clearly did not disappoint, since their number did not decline, as expected, to 4,900,000. It increased from 5,371,000 to 5,889,000. And this should not be surprising, since it is quite an expected consequence of more significant job growth, shown in a report by the United States Department of Labor. The very same increase in the number of open vacancies clearly indicates that unemployment will continue to decline faster than expected.
Number of Job Openings JOLTS (United States):
However, this day began precisely with the same circus, which was mentioned above. Yes, the UK labor market data was not just a surprise, they were discouraging. The highlight of the program was the very applications for unemployment benefits. It was reported that the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 28.1 thousand at exactly 6:00 London time. That is, it did not increase, but decreased exactly the same date as a month earlier which looks fantastic. After all, this is impossible. At the same time, employment declined by 220 thousand. That is, it turns out that employment is decreasing, and with it the number of applications for unemployment benefits. As if people are not losing their jobs, but retiring. After all, the unemployment rate itself remains unchanged for the third month in a row. Such a combination of indicators is, in principle, impossible. So, market participants were slightly confused by the next statistical miracles performed by the UK. And this does not inspire confidence, but only scares. But the funny thing is that just ten minutes after the publication, the data on applications for unemployment benefits were revised. And the place of decline by 28.1 thousand, their number increased by 94.4 thousand. This is more in line with the reality and dynamics of employment. However, the unemployment rate itself has magically remained unchanged, which is even more contrary to all the laws of the universe. It is clear that investors did not bother to speculate about the nature of the miracle, and just began to get rid of the pound, with which there is so much strange and incomprehensible. After all, you can expect anything from it. And uncertainty scares investors the most. However, it is also worth noting that wages in the UK are also bad. The growth rate of average wages, by 0.7%, was replaced by a decline of 0.2%. If you take wages into account bonuses and overtime, the rate of decline accelerated from -0.3% to -1.2%. This turned out to be much worse than expected. So employment is falling, the army of unemployed is growing, and wages are falling. Only the unemployment rate remains unchanged. It's just a miracle.
Change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (UK):
The dollar can further develop its successes today. The fact is that the rate of decline in producer prices may slow down from -0.8% to -0.7%. In a month, they should grow by 0.3%. Taking into account the fact that producer prices are a leading indicator for inflation, then before the publication of this very inflation, such data guarantee that it will definitely not decline. For investors, this is an extremely positive factor, so it is possible to count on further growth of the dollar.
Producer Price Index (United States):
The EUR/USD currency pair adheres to the previously set downward trend, which brings the price closer to the reference level of 1.1700. It can be assumed that consolidating the price below the August 4 low of 1.1721 will lead to a move towards 1.1700. Subsequent actions are performed depending on whether the quote manages to consolidate below 1.1700 on a four-hour period. Otherwise, another price rebound awaits us.
The GBP/USD currency pair, after a variable bumpiness between 1.3060/1.3100, turned into a local acceleration, where the lower border of stagnation was hit by sellers. If the price is kept below the level of 1.3060, a way will open in the direction of the values 1.3020-1.3000.
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