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The US dollar continues to trade at multi-month lows against a basket of major competitors. The pressure on the greenback comes from falling Treasury yields. Nervousness is added by the expected publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Reserve. It is possible that the Fed's "minutes" will not reflect any important changes in the regulator's rhetoric. However, the comments should help market players predict the dynamics of the monetary policy rate in the near future. In addition, officials may announce their willingness to be patient with higher inflation rates. This means that today's publication of the protocols will not support the dollar, on the contrary, in this scenario, the pressure on it may increase.
However, the greenback remains extremely weak even without additional factors. Clouds continue to gather over the new bill on the fiscal stimulus package. This is no longer just a dead-end situation, but something more. The day before, US President Donald Trump made it clear that he is not going to make concessions to the Democrats and will continue to insist on his version of the aid package.
The pre-election race adds volatility to the market. The biggest risk for the dollar, according to most currency strategists, is the fact that power in Congress and the White House will pass into the hands of Democrats. They, in turn, may cancel the tax cut approved in 2017, which will negatively affect the growth of profits in the corporate sector.
In addition, the US stock market rose to all-time highs. This supports risky assets and is one of the main reasons for the fall of the greenback. On Tuesday, the stock market finally saw an update of the historic highs for the S&P 500. The next targets have shifted to the 3425 - 3445 p. The region from where stronger movements may come.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley chooses the US dollar as the best currency of the turbulent 2020, separating it from the "three" of defensive assets, which also includes the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.
"We expect the US dollar to become the best safe haven currency, especially now that low interest rates in the US make it a more attractive funding currency for carry trades," the bank said in a research note.
However, banking strategists are now maintaining a bearish bias in the US dollar. In their opinion, the positive attitude towards risky assets will remain for the time being.
The impasse with economic stimulation, political uncertainty, as well as weak macroeconomic data is damaging the US dollar. The longer this situation continues, the greater the risk that the dollar sell-off will turn into a real debacle.
As for the Swiss franc, Morgan Stanley added that the upside potential is limited by currency interventions by the country's regulator. However, at the moment the USD / CHF pair requires close attention. Its rate is actively declining on Wednesday. This week alone, the dollar lost 0.6% to the franc, hitting a 5-year low of 0.90. Given the continued flight from the dollar, the aggressive sell-off in USD / CHF may continue.
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