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Oil enthusiastically received the news about the approach to the Gulf Coast of two hurricanes Laura and Marco and the associated closure of 82% of oil production in the region. It is an extremely important world center after the Middle East. About 15% of all US oil production and about 50% of all refining is concentrated here. The decrease in the first indicator by 1 million b/d or more is good news for the "bulls" for Brent and WTI. However, not everyone thinks so. Mizuho Securities claims that if the processing plants close, there will be no need for mining either. As a result, the price of black gold will be under pressure.
History shows that natural disasters are not a long-term factor. Their impact on the economy of the Gulf of Mexico and the United States as a whole is usually exaggerated. At the same time, the subsequent recovery of the region often leads to a rollercoaster for Brent and WTI. The long-term factors that determine the future of oil remain unchanged: prices will be determined by the speed of global supply and demand recovery, as well as the dynamics of the US dollar. In this regard, the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe and the associated decline in the ratio of people infected with coronavirus in the United States and the Old World is an argument in favor of the correction of EUR/USD and at the same time restrains the offensive rush of "bulls" for black gold.
Dynamics of EUR/USD and epidemiological situation in the USA and Europe
A negative factor for oil is a sharp increase in the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes in the week to August 21. For a long time, the indicator remained near the 15-year bottom, and rumors were actively circulating in the market that American companies were not in a hurry to increase production, but use the money received from sales to repay loans. It seems that something has started to change in their worldview.
On the other hand, the commitment of the US and China to fulfill their obligations under the trade agreement concluded in early 2020 and the intention of Donald Trump to accelerate the process of obtaining an experimental vaccine from Britain is a positive for global demand. The owner of the White House is doing everything possible to win the election, and the confident Middle Kingdom is seriously going to become the world's number 1. The interest of both sides in the absence of a new round of trade wars is good for the world economy and oil.
Dynamics of GDP in the US and China
I do not think that the second wave of the pandemic in Europe will be as terrible as the first. Most diseases are mild, and the number of hospitalizations and death rates are low. Also, vaccines are on the way, which should reduce the level of fear among the population and contribute to the recovery of the global economy. This factor allows me to remain bullish about the long-term prospects for oil. Brent buying strategies on the rise from the levels of $44 and $45 per barrel are working. We will wait for a breakout of the resistance at $46, which will allow us to increase the longs with a target of $51 per barrel. Near this mark, the target of 78.6% for the inverted "Shark" pattern is located.
Brent, the daily chart
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