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Yesterday may well be called a day of good news, as macroeconomic data came out better than forecasts both in the EU and the US. However, this helped the single European currency much more than the dollar, although the US had the data that turned out to be much better than forecasts.
It all started with the second estimate of Germany's GDP for the second quarter, which showed that the pace of economic decline accelerated from -2.2% to -11.3%. It seems like everything is very, very bad, but earlier it was believed that the rate of economic decline was at -2.3% in the first quarter. This means that the previous results were revised for the better. In addition, the first estimate showed that the rate of decline was -11.7% in the second quarter. In other words, it turns out that the scale of the recession is somewhat smaller than previously assumed, and this is exactly what was included in the price. So investors had to adjust their positions. Obviously in favor of the euro.
GDP growth rates (Germany):
The dollar began to regain its losses as soon as the data on the housing market was published. But it did not succeed. New home sales rose 13.9%, not 1.0% as predicted. The dollar's growth potential was limited by the dynamics of house prices, the growth rates of which slowed down from 3.6% to 3.5%. But it was expected that in the worst case they would remain unchanged. There were even forecasts that the rate of growth in house prices would accelerate to 3.8%. But they have declined. Although against the background of such an impressive growth in sales, a slight slowdown in the growth rate of prices is insignificant. Nevertheless, the dollar was unable to win back all its losses and had slightly weakened by the end of the day.
New Home Sales (United States):
The only thing that will be of interest to investors today is orders for durable goods in the United States. Moreover, they should grow by 3.9%. And this is according to the most conservative estimates. After all, the dynamics of retail sales indicates that orders could grow a little more. By about 4.3%. And this is another confirmation that the US economy is steadily recovering. Albeit in conditions of relative price stability. The main thing now is to restore sales. Prices and total profits will be thought of later.
Durable Goods Orders (United States):
The euro/dollar pair has a closed cycle of fluctuations around the average level of the side channel for the second consecutive day at 1.1700//1.8000//1.1900, where activity has significantly decreased. The average level of volatility since the beginning of the trading week is 62 points with a norm of 80 points. Slowing down for more than a day may well lead to a new round of acceleration, if you leave it.
We can assume that the slowdown at 1.1785/1.1850 plays a major role among speculators, where working on its breakout is considered a priority.
We will specify all of the above into trading signals:
- Consider buy positions higher than 1.1850, with the prospect of a move to 1.1900.
- Consider sell positions lower than 1.1785, with the prospect of a move to 1.1760-1.1700.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments at hourly intervals have a variable signal due to price fluctuations of a narrow range. Daily periods signal a sale, but the signal is unstable, and the sale is -- > neutral.
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