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Increased orders for US durable goods triggered only a temporary bullish mood in the dollar, so the market was mainly in the hands of the bears yesterday. However, price was still unable to pass below the support level of 1.1785, around which, quite a lot of large players are apparently concentrated. Thus, at this level lies the future movement of the EUR / USD pair, as a breakout from which will determine if a downward correction will continue in the market.
At the same time, Fed chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to conduct a speech today, during which he will report on the conclusions made by the committee after the revision of the monetary policy. Any changes will inevitably lead to a price increase in the US dollar.
To resume the bearish mood in the EUR / USD pair, sellers have to push for a breakout from the support level of 1.1785. Such will result in a quick return to the area of last week's lows, and open an opportunity to reach a price level of 1.1710. However, the trend will end if the quote passes the support level of 1.1650, as after it an upward movement may start in the market. Moreover, if the bulls manage to resist pressure from the bears, the quote may break out of the resistance level 1.1840, and such will push the price to levels 1.1890 and 1.1960.
Going back to the upcoming speech of Fed chairman Powell, several points will be given attention to, among which is the revision of target inflation from 2% to 2.5%. However, such a benchmark will remain only until the economy reaches full or almost full employment, thus, most likely, conditions will change on the advance indication of inflation. Another revision may be on the current PEPP program, and it will depend on how much its volume will be increased and how long it will last.
In simpler terms, if Powell announces new programs to support the economy, mainly through easing monetary policy and defining more clearly the goals for which changes will be made, the US dollar will rise against other world currencies, particularly risk assets. But if the head of the FRS continues to take a rather calm wait-and-see attitude, pointing to a good pace of economic recovery in the summer and expressing more and more worries about the uncertainty that awaits the economy in the future, the US dollar may weaken against the euro and the pound.
As for the recent data on durable goods orders in the United States, the report yesterday revealed that orders rose 11.2% in July, very much higher than the expected 5.0%.
AUD / USD
Capital expenditures in Australia declined 5.9% in Q2 2020 from the previous quarter, which indicates weak investment. This will pose a major challenge to the pace of economic recovery in the country, and is another signal that the Reserve Bank of Australia needs to continue maintaining its soft monetary policy.
Nonetheless, the AUD / USD pair remains trading around a price level of 0.7230. A breakout from this range will push the quote to new local highs at 0.7340 and 0.7400, but if the price undergoes a downward correction, support will be seen at this week's lows around 0.7145. Larger players will probably prefer to return to the market after the quote passes a price level of 0.7070.
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