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The market did not pay attention to the rather interesting data on inflation in a number of European countries, but a few words from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida were enough to make the market literally explode. Of course, the main growth of the single European currency already began during the Asian session, as investors needed to understand what they heard. Neither more nor less, but Clarida, albeit in an obscure form, said that if necessary, the Fed may consider reducing the refinancing rate to negative values. It is clear that after this, everything else does not matter. Investors are trying to get rid of dollars.
Nevertheless, today investors will have to recall yesterday's inflation data in a number of European countries. After all, preliminary data on inflation in the entire euro area will be released today. The main forecast says inflation should fall from 0.4% to 0.0%. And in theory, this should seriously weaken the single currency as Europe itself is slipping into deflation. However, yesterday's data, especially for Germany, were slightly better than forecasts. So there is every reason to believe that inflation will not slow down as much. Up to about 0.2%. This is also a negative factor, but not so terrifying. Moreover, a psychological factor can work, they say, the data came out better than forecasts, which means you need to buy. So even such a slowdown in inflation will only contribute to strengthening the euro. Moreover, investors are much more afraid of the prospect of the Fed reducing the refinancing rate to negative values.
Inflation (Europe):
The euro/dollar pair managed to maintain the upward track that the market set during the past week. In the wake of long positions, the European currency managed to strengthen by more than 200 points and, perhaps, this is not yet the case. Now the focus is on the psychological level of 1.2000, where the quote is located nearby.
High volatility indicators are reported relative to the dynamics, which confirms the speculative interest in the market.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see that the side channel 1.1700/1.1800/1.1900(1.1930) no longer plays a major role in the market.
We can assume that the long-term movement in the market will depend on how the quote behaves relative to the psychological level of 1.2000.
We will specify all of the above in trading signals:
- Consider buy positions if the price settles higher than 1.2015, with the prospect of a move to 1.2080-1.2100.
- Consider sell positions in the event of a price rebound from the 1.2000 level and we settle below 1.1975. The prospect is 1.1950-1.1900.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments at hourly and daily intervals signal a purchase by setting the price at high price levels.
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