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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency on September 1 and began the process of falling. There were also fixes under the upward trend corridor and the level of 76.4% (1.1916). Thus, the mood of traders is now characterized as "bearish". Nevertheless, there were several reasons for the growth of the US dollar on Tuesday. First, the failed test of the 20th figure. Second, a weak report on inflation in the European Union. Third, the strong ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector. These three reasons were enough for the US currency to feel some relief. However, I think it is too early for bear traders to relax. It will take a lot of effort to at least return the pair to the 18th figure. This is only 100 points below the current value. For the most part, disappointing news continues to arrive from America. Therefore, at any time, the growth of the dollar can stop. I remind you that Democrats and Republicans have not come to a common opinion on the issue of providing a new package of financial assistance to the US economy, and the economy itself may begin to slow down in the coming weeks due to the coronavirus pandemic that has been raging in America in recent months.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair also performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling towards the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729), after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. Thus, the further growth of quotes is postponed indefinitely to the side. The pair's quotes can again perform a return to the side corridor, however, it is no longer working, since the pair left it twice.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed another consolidation above the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825), which allows us to count on further growth. However, the pair's quotes can now perform a fall to the lower border of the trend corridor, as the two lower charts indicate the beginning of the fall.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation over the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On September 1, Germany released a report on unemployment, which remained unchanged at 6.4%. The EU unemployment rate rose to 7.9%. Inflation in the Eurozone fell to -0.2% y/y, while the business activity index in the EU manufacturing sector remained at 51.7. Overall, the news package from Europe was weak. The ISM index for the US manufacturing sector, on the contrary, exceeded traders' expectations.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in the number of employees from ADP (12:15 GMT).
On September 2, the EU calendar is completely empty, and information about the change in the number of people employed in the US economy will be received from America - a fairly important report.
COTc(Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was very revealing. According to the results of the reporting week, large traders of the "Non-commercial" group opened 1302 new long contracts and closed 11 thousand short contracts. Thus, their mood became even more "bullish". And the difference between the total volumes of long and short contracts focused on their hands has increased even more. Thus, the "bullish" mood of speculators has been growing continuously since June 20, which allows us to conclude that the upward trend for the euro/dollar pair continues. The "Commercial" group, which usually trades against the trend, opened 7 thousand short-contracts during the reporting week, and the total number of short-contracts for all groups of traders decreased by 7 thousand, and long-contracts - by a thousand.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with targets of 1.1860-1.1805, as it was closed under the trend corridor on the hourly chart. I recommend a new purchase of the pair if the rebound from the level of 127.2% (1.1729) is performed with the goal of 1.1800-1.1900.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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