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The dollar has been actively growing for quite some time, but it still remained in the same position throughout Thursday. And frankly, it looks crazy, since everything indicated that the dollar should have steadily grown. Macroeconomic data was in favor of the dollar's growth both in Europe and in the United States. But, apparently, at some point, investors simply remembered that the US Department of Labor report will be released today, and decided not to risk it ahead of time.
At the same time, market participants were completely shocked with the latest European data. After all, they expected that the growth rate of retail sales would accelerate from 1.3% to 3.7%, which will offset the decline in consumer prices. Yes, not just compensate, but more than cover it. However, the growth rate suddenly slowed to 0.4%. It turns out that not only has deflation begun in Europe, but consumer activity is also steadily going down. In general, the picture is terrifying. And from that moment on, the market literally froze in place, as if hypnotized. After all, they hoped for a completely different result, and after such unexpected data no one simply understood what to do next.
Retail Sales (Europe):
But the most interesting thing was the market's reaction to the data on claims for unemployment benefits in the United States. The fact is that the data came out much better than the forecasts. In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell from 1,011,000 to 881,000 which is the lowest value since the coronavirus pandemic began, and the economic damage it caused. The number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 14,492,000 to 13,254,000, which is also the best result since the crisis started. But there was no reaction. As stated earlier, investors have decided not to risk it ahead of today's release of the US Department of Labor report.
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (United States):
So, expectations for the content of the US Department of Labor report are rather optimistic. Most importantly, the unemployment rate should drop from 10.2% to 9.9%. At the same time, the dynamics of applications for unemployment benefits inspires confidence that unemployment will slightly decline even more. In addition, it is expected that 1,490,000 new jobs were created outside the agriculture sector. Which is a very, very good result. Investors will look at these indicators. And now hardly anyone cares about such things as, for example, the dynamics of the average hourly wage, the growth rate of which should slow down from 4.8% to 4.6%. First, the issue of unemployment must be resolved, and salaries will be dealt with later.
Unemployment rate (United States):
The euro/dollar pair, moving along a downward trajectory from the resistance level of 1.2000, managed to find strength in the form of the average market level of 1.1800, where it slowed down and formed a rebound in the direction of 1.1865.
If we proceed from the quotes' current location, then we can see another slowdown within 1.1840/1.1865, which implies the upcoming acceleration in the market.
Regarding market dynamics, a slight decline in volatility is recorded, which can also signal market participants' readiness for new leaps.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see the price fluctuating at the conditional top of the inertial course, where the psychological level 1.2000 serves as the peak.
We can assume that the support area of 1.1790/1.1810 will temporarily hold back sellers, but if the price settles lower than 1.1780, everything can dramatically change and new speculations will emerge in the market, which will lead us in the direction of 1.1750-1.1700..
An alternative scenario considers completing the initial corrective move from the 1.2000 level, where setting the price above 1.1880 will open the way in the direction of 1.1900-1.1925.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on 1-minute intervals have a variable signal due to price stagnation within 1.1840/1.1865. Hourly and daily periods signal a sell due to a rapid downtrend a period earlier.
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