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The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument has become quite integral in global terms. The departure of quotes from the reached highs in recent days once again leads to the conclusion that the construction of wave 3 or C is complete. If this assumption is correct, then lowering the quotes will continue with targets placed below the low of wave 4 in 5 a 3 or C within the construction of the assumed wave 4, after the completion of which the construction of the upward trend section can be resumed within the wave 5. It is still possible that the entire section of the trend, which begins in mid-March, will take a three-wave form and will be completed around the 1.2011 mark. However, this requires that demand for the dollar increases in the coming weeks and months. This will depend on the news background.
The wave count of a smaller scale shows that the estimated wave 5 in 5 in 3 or C completed its construction. If this is true, then the decline in quotes will continue with targets located near the 23.6% Fibonacci level within the descending wave 4 or, possibly, even a new descending set of waves. Wave 4 can take a three-wave form, but so far nothing like this can be traced in it.
There was not much important news in America and the European Union on Monday, September 8. Nevertheless, there was still something. European GDP in the second quarter decreased by 11.8% compared to the previous quarter, which is slightly better than experts estimated a month ago. Demand for the European currency did not increase due to this report. In the near future, trading on the instrument may take place in a very chaotic rhythm, as the news coming from the European Union and America is quite weak. It became known yesterday that Republicans and Democrats still cannot agree on a new package of financial assistance to the US economy. Earlier, it was reported that the Republicans are ready to increase their offer to $ 1.3 trillion, and the Democrats are ready to reduce their offer to $ 2.2 trillion. However, yesterday it was reported that Republicans registered a bill for $ 500 billion in aid to the economy. That is 800 billion less than previously planned. Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer (Democrats) have already criticized the Republican proposal and said they will not vote for such a proposal. "Republicans in the Senate seem fixated on a bill that doesn't even come close to solving problems and doesn't lead anywhere," Schumer and Pelosi said. Let me remind you that the package of assistance to the European economy was also not adopted, as the European Parliament refused to approve it, considering it impractical to reduce funding for various programs. Thus, negotiations on the Recovery Fund may continue in September. And these two events will clearly not increase demand for either the dollar or the Euro.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The Euro-Dollar pair presumably completed the construction of a global wave of 3 or C. Thus, at this time, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1706 and 1.1520, which corresponds to 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci level, for each MACD signal down. If wave 4 is actually being built at this time, it can take a three-wave form.
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