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The construction of a new downward section of the trend continues. The continued decline in quotes suggests the completion of the construction of wave 2 or b as part of this section, which therefore, has taken a rather shortened form. A successful attempt to break through the minimum of the expected wave 1 or a allows us to conclude that the markets are ready for further sales of the British Pound. At the same time, the current wave markup allows us to assume absolutely various scenarios with additions and adjustments.
Over the past trading day, the GBP/USD instrument has gained several basis points and today it has gained about 100 points. Thus, we can assume that the current downward wave, which is now identified as 3 or C, is complete. However, an uptrend section is also identified as completed. Thus, the current wave markup still suggests a further decline in quotes. If this assumption is correct, then the decline should resume in the near future, otherwise the entire wave marking may require adjustments.
UK businesses are sounding the alarms. All this time, British industrialists have been hoping that the government will be able to negotiate with the European Union to trade without duties, checks, and various restrictions. However, in three months, Britain will officially leave the EU. The survey, which was conducted by the Confederation of British Industry, showed that 77% of companies want London to make a deal with the EU, and only 4% prefer to leave the EU without an agreement. Michael Gove, who will hold the final round of talks with the EU this week, said that in the most optimistic scenario, only 50% or 70% of companies and businesses will be ready to trade with the EU under the new terms. Despite the fact that Boris Johnson set a deadline for negotiations on October 15, Michel Barnier continues to say that an agreement is still very far away. By and large, no compromises were found on the four most important issues. The last two rounds of negotiations-- like all previous ones-- ended in failure. Thus, I continue to believe that the parties will not be able to conclude an agreement. It is quite possible that this factor will allow the instrument to resume the decline in quotations, which will mean a new weakening of the British Pound. However, new negotiations between London and Brussels may already be hindered by a controversial bill that was approved by the British Parliament and allows the government to violate international law. Thus, the chances of concluding an agreement are even less.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The Pound-Dollar instrument presumably continues to build a new downtrend. The expected wave 2 or b completed its construction near the 38.2% level. Thus, now I continue to recommend selling the instrument with targets around 1.2721 and 1.2539, which is equal to 61.8% and 76.4% for Fibonacci in the expectation of building the third wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level will indicate that the markets are ready to lower prices.
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