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The greenback fell sharply after the White House proposed a new $1.8 trillion stimulus package on Friday. However, over the weekend, both House Democrats and Senate Republicans opposed the proposal. The former believe that it is not comprehensive enough, while the latter is concerned that it will increase the country's accumulated debts.
Against this background, the USD index was able to move away from the minimum levels reached at the end of last week in the region of 93 points.
However, according to strategists at The Goldman Sachs, the dollar recovery will be short-lived.
They predict that the USD index will fall below 89 points due to the growing likelihood of Joe Biden winning the US presidential election and progress in the development of a vaccine against COVID-19.
"Risks are still biased towards a weakening dollar. We see a relatively low chance of the most positive result for a greenback - a victory for Donald Trump. Along with the favorable news about the timing of vaccinations, this could bring the USD index back to its 2018 lows," The Goldman Sachs noted.
Meanwhile, Bank of America experts believe that the greenback could strengthen even more thanks to its status as a defensive asset.
"The global economy is already starting to weaken. We expect the reintroduction of restrictive measures in most countries, especially in Europe, which could affect the results for the fourth quarter," they said.
According to the BofA forecast, the EUR / USD pair in the fourth quarter may fall to 1.1400.
After rising to two-week highs in the area of 1.1830, the major currency pair returned to levels below 1.1800 on Monday.
The main support factor for the euro remains an investor appetite for risk, which is fueled by hopes for a new aid package for the US economy.
At the same time, the strengthening of the euro is constrained by concerns about the future prospects of the eurozone economy in the face of a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
According to ECB chief economist Philip Lane, the economy of the currency bloc is in a precarious state after an initial recovery.
The euro still maintains its recently gained advantage against the US dollar, but the EUR / USD pair may well turn south.
Experts call the serious worsening of the epidemiological situation in the EU, among the arguments that can convince investors to abandon the euro, as well as negative forecasts regarding the state of the region's economy. The latter may lead to an expansion of stimulus measures from the ECB, including an increase in the QE program.
In addition, on the eve of or following the results of the presidential elections in the US, investors may begin to massively fix profits on the stock market, which will lead to a sharp rise in the USD and a fall in the EUR.
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