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The single European currency is increasingly at the mercy of the coronavirus. There was a downward movement in the morning, provoked by the words of Chancellor Angela Merkel that Germany may well again close all bars, cafes and restaurants. Of course, due to the extremely strong increase in new cases of coronavirus infection. Afterwards, everyone openly started talking about the fact that Europe apparently had no choice but to re-introduce the restrictive measures that were in force this spring. And then the euro began to quickly lose its positions two to three hours after the US session opened. The reason for this was the publication of new morbidity data, which set new anti-records. France particularly stood out, where in three days, since data for the weekend and Monday were published, the number of new cases of coronavirus infection exceeded 100,000. This is an absolute record. After this, it really seems that Europe has no choice but to re-close everything.
Nevertheless, we must admit that the euro had a reason to fall even without it. The fact is that the data on orders for durable goods in the United States came out much better than forecasted. Orders were expected to rise by 0.4%, but it turned out that they increased by 1.9%. Considering the fact that this indicator is ahead in many ways, in the near future we can expect an increase in industrial production and retail sales. So the dollar clearly had enough reason to rise.
Durable Goods Orders (United States):
The macroeconomic calendar is essentially empty today. Although in the current conditions this does not mean anything at all. The market will closely monitor the development of the epidemiological situation in Europe. Although it is quite possible that the market will stand still. The European Central Bank will hold a meeting tomorrow and investors expect some statements from President Christine Lagarde in the light of all that is happening. It is possible that the ECB may expand the effect of the stimulus measures just because of the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. So investors will be careful not to make any sudden moves.
The euro/dollar pair showed an active downward interest on Tuesday, as a result, the quote updated its low at the beginning of the week and rushed to the next level of 1.1770, where another slowdown occurred.
Based on the quote's current location, a stop will be visible with an attempt to switch to a pullback mode from 1.1770.
Regarding market dynamics, the average volatility indicator is fixed, but if we proceed from local fluctuations, then we see a high speculative interest.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see a consistent recovery process in relation to the four-week upward trend.
We can assume that in the absence of an information background, we will expect a moderate bumpiness within the values of 1.1760/1.1795, which will play as a cumulative process in the future.
From the point of view of a complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on hourly periods signal a sell since the local weekly low was updated. The day period changed the upward interest to neutral since the price settled below the 1.1810 level .
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