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So Germany has closed bars and restaurants. Only for a month. And judging by the dynamics of the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, this decision may well be extended. France has already followed the example of Germany, which has also introduced a kind of limited quarantine, with the closure of bars, restaurants and shops. An exception was made for stores selling essential goods. In addition, severe restrictions on movement have been introduced. And it's no secret that European business has not yet recovered from the spring closure, and the re-introduction of similar measures will simply kill small and medium-sized businesses. So it is not surprising that investors are hastily getting rid of European assets, including the euro.
But today, the coronavirus issue will only become a backdrop for the main event, which is the European Central Bank meeting. Take note that the quarantine measures that were in force this spring was the reason why additional incentive measures were introduced. Simply put, the ECB launched another quantitative easing program. And this is nothing more than an even greater easing of monetary policy. So, it is highly likely that the ECB may expand the operation of this coronavirus program in the face of what is happening in Germany and France. Just by increasing its volume. This step will become an even greater easing of monetary policy, which is not very encouraging for investors, as it reduces the return on investment. So the euro may continue to fall.
The euro/dollar pair continues to follow a downward trajectory, as a result of which, the quote went towards the value of 1.1718, where the 1.1700/1.1710 area is located in the immediate vicinity, which affected the volume of short positions.
Based on the quote's current location, you will see a pullback, followed by a slowdown within the values of 1.1743/1.1760.
Acceleration is recorded relative to the market dynamics, which is confirmed by the inertial movement of the price, as well as by the high coefficient of speculative operations.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see the recovery process relative to the four-week upward move.
We can assume that if the quotes are kept below 1.1730, another flow of short positions will occur, which will lead us to the area of 1.1700/1.1710. The most impressive decline awaits us once the price has settled below 1.1690.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods signal a sell due to the recovery process.
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