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In the most global terms, the construction of the upward trend section continues, however, the entire wave marking takes a complex form. The section of the trend that begins on September 23 has taken a five-wave form, however, it is not impulsive and may already be completed. Thus, the construction of a new three-wave section of the trend, and perhaps a more complex descending wave structure, could already begin. So far, it looks like this.
The lower chart clearly shows the a-b-c-d-e waves of the upward trend section. This means that this section may already be completed. If this is true, then the decline in quotes will continue from the current levels with targets located near the 29th figure and below. At the same time, the section that begins on September 23 may take on an even longer form. But for now, I'm leaning towards the option of building a new descending set of waves, and the option with complication remains a spare.
Markets continue to closely monitor the progress of negotiations between the UK and the European Union. But there is no new information about this. On the contrary, the parties declare that if the negotiations will end, then it will be next week (and it is still unclear whether they will end with a deal or failure). Meanwhile, in the UK, a new daily anti-record for COVID diseases was recorded - 33.4 thousand. In total, almost 1.3 million cases have been reported since the beginning of the pandemic. The nationwide quarantine, which was introduced by the Boris Johnson government until December 2, simply does not work. People continue to get infected, and the pandemic continues to spiral out of control. Thus, the UK, along with America, France, Spain, Italy, and some other countries, may completely lose control of COVID. This, in turn, will harm the economy, which Boris Johnson cares so much about. The latest data showed that GDP is growing at a slower pace than both the government and the markets expected. In the third quarter, the growth was revised downwards, from 15.8% to 15.5%. Industrial production in the UK grew in September by just 0.5%. Earlier, it was reported that unemployment was rising. And inflation has long been at an all-time low. Thus, the key indicators of the state of the economy are either already "at the bottom", or they are aiming at this very "bottom". After a disastrous second quarter, of course, there was some recovery, but in the case of the UK, it was weak. The Bank of England has already expanded its asset purchase program and is actively preparing to use negative interest rates. And besides, Britain still faces a real threat of relations with the European Union from 2021 without any agreements.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The pound/dollar instrument resumed building an upward trend, however, its last wave could have already ended. Thus, now I recommend looking closely at the sales of the instrument for each signal of the MACD indicator "down". A successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level indirectly warns that the instrument is ready to go down with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.3010 and 1.2864, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci.
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