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A lot of experts agree that strong financial injections from leading regulators such as the Fed and ECB, will help the suffering economy. The key currencies will then catch up, allowing the EUR/USD pair to consolidate in an upward direction.
The worsening pandemic situation on both sides prevents the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair to be successful. The number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, which puts increasing pressure on both the economies of America and Europe. In this case, the markets are looking forward to stimulus measures from the ECB and the Fed, which can give new impulse to key economies.
Danske Bank experts believe that the EUR/USD pair will manage to break through the level of 1.2000, if the ECB will be the driver of the global economic recovery. In this scenario, the Fed is assigned to take the role of the main catalyst for inflation growth above the target level of 2%. The key to a successful global economic recovery will be a combination of factors such as an improved epidemiological situation in the world, progress in the Brexit negotiations in Europe, and positive developments in the US fiscal stimulus.
Technically, the EUR/USD pair will reach new peaks, in case of a relatively favorable development of events in the euro's exchange rate to the US dollar. According to Danske Bank, this is a matter for the next three months. However, most analysts are doubting optimistic prospects for key currencies. Currently, the classic pair has to constantly confirm its importance, breaking through to new levels. Today, the EUR/USD pair was moving around the level of 1.1851-1.1852. The bank is confident that if the current trends continue, major currencies will continue to drift in the range of 1.1500-1.1900.
The long-term prospects of the EUR/USD pair are also questionable. Analysts at Danske Bank agree with this, and so adhere to cautious forecasts, which are mainly aimed at deteriorating the dynamics of this pair. By now, their specialists have lowered their forecasts by 1-3 figures in the semi-annual and annual planning ranges. Danske Bank's calculations for the EUR/USD pair for 3 and 12 months provide for its dynamics in the range of 1.2000 and 1.1600, respectively.
The US economy, whose main goal is to minimize the negative consequences of COVID-19, also has its own difficulties. Experts believe that the strengthening of the current problems will push regulators, in particular the Fed, to take new stimulating measures. In such a situation, we should not expect a quick return, since such measures imply a long-term effect.
In view of this, the Fed and the US government are currently ready to give the national economy with additional stimulus. Experts think that such a strategy will help unleash hidden potential that will emerge in 2021. By this time, the US economy will have accumulated significant demand, due to which the yields of long bonds can sharply rise. If this plan is realized, the USD will have a head start, allowing it to bypass the euro.
On the contrary, there will be a narrowed growth for the US dollar, if a negative scenario occurs, that is, when long yields are limited. In such a situation, the risk of moving real interest rates in the US into a negative zone increases. According to analysts, this drastically reduces the dollar's chances to rise. If such a scenario happens, experts believe that even the Fed's impulse will not pull the USD to a high level.
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