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The euro grew yesterday morning due to continued optimism that vaccines will soon be introduced to widespread use and claims by AstraZeneca that its vaccine is 90% effective. Pfizer, looking at such a case, has increased the effectiveness of its vaccine to 95%. The euro grew even despite the deteriorating business sentiment in Europe: Manufacturing PMI fell from 54.8 to 53.6 in November, Services PMI deteriorated from 46.9 to 41.3. The US PMI came out in the evening and they turned out to be much better: Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7 from 53.4, Services PMI improved to 57.7 from 56.9 a month earlier. These data were the reason for the market reversal. As a result, the euro traded in a range of 107 points and closed the day with a decline of 17 points.
But trading volumes were average, comparable to last week's daily volume, when the euro was up since November 12. This shows that the topic of the vaccine is really secondary to the markets, used by the media to justify or simply explain the euro's speculative growth. Large investors are waiting for their moment. Obviously, this moment is connected with the clarification of the Brexit situation and the inclusion of the new US administration in the game.
On the daily chart, yesterday's range was limited by the balance indicator lines at the bottom and the MACD line at the top. The Marlin oscillator moved down. For the situation to completely move downward, Marlin must move into negative territory. This is likely to happen when the price breaks through yesterday's low. At the moment, the price is still willing to try to go beyond the MACD line (1.1902) again.
On the four-hour chart, the price settled below both indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator also settled well in the negative trend zone. The 1.1750 target is already open here. In general, the probability of falling from the current levels is 70%.
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