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No one doubts that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for quite a long period. It is another matter what will be the new fiscal stimulus package, which should lead to an acceleration of inflation in the United States. Yesterday's news about the introduction of two proposals to Congress for fiscal stimulus in the amount of 980 billion US dollars forced even the most conservative buyers to increase long positions in risky assets. However, at the beginning of the US session, "this story" has not yet been continued, and the entire focus is shifted to the second half of the day and data on the US labor market.
The European currency is supported by today's Eurozone reports. Data that the unemployment rate in the Eurozone fell in October this year, rather than increased, surprised traders, which is a good sign for the European economy. So far, the new quarantine measures have not led to difficulties in the labor market, especially if several EU support programs are in place. The number of unemployed in 19 EU countries fell by 86,000 in October, while the unemployment rate itself fell to 8.4% from 8.5% in the previous month, according to the statistics bureau Eurostat. As noted above, the real picture of the unemployment rate in the Eurozone is not fully known, since wage subsidy programs, which cover a significant part of business costs, allow many employers to keep employees in their states.
And in Italy, things are not as good as we would like. The report shows that the unemployment rate rose to 9.8% against the September figure of 9.7%. A total of 13,000 jobs were cut in October, while the number of unemployed rose by 11,000.
Vaccine news is also a supportive factor for risky assets. Also, the latest data on the vaccine provided support for the Eurozone economic recovery indicator, which continued its growth. According to Oxford Economics, the indicator of economic recovery in the Eurozone for the week from November 9 to 15 increased by 7.1 points.
The increase in retail sales in Germany in October this year also had a positive impact on the euro. It is worth noting that in general, the latest news for Germany is quite good, which indicates how the country is coping with the second lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. The growth of retail sales will have a positive impact on the growth rate of the economy in the 4th quarter of this year. According to the data, retail sales in Germany in October 2020 increased by 2.6% compared to the previous month. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales increased by 8.2%.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged compared to the morning forecast. A small correction to the support area of 1.2040 should return demand for the euro from major players who are betting on the strengthening of the euro, especially if a compromise is found on the trade agreement between the UK and the EU. A break in the resistance of 1.2085 will open a direct path for the trading instrument to new highs in the area of 1.2140 and 1.2200, where it will be possible to once again observe a slowdown in the bullish momentum. A breakout of the level of 1.2040 will quickly push the trading instrument to the base of the 20th figure.
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