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Well, the assumptions made earlier about the subsequent growth of the main currency pair were fully justified. The main target for euro bulls was to be the price area of 1.2000-1.12010, where the subsequent direction of the exchange rate was to be decided. That's exactly what happened.
The appetite for risk sentiment in the market was driven by the expectation of the adoption of a fiscal stimulus package in the United States to deal with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Let me remind you that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has resumed negotiations on this issue with Nancy Pelosi, and for the time being, the current President Donald Trump is likely to sign an agreement on the adoption of a package of assistance, the volume of which will be 908 billion dollars.
And in several European countries, despite the easing of restrictions, they will be extended. In particular, the German authorities decided to extend the restrictive measures until January 10. In the run-up to the Christmas holidays, the European Union is preparing for the next wave of COVID-19, and the main topic is still vaccination of the population of EU countries.
If you look at today's economic calendar, those who trade the euro/dollar should pay attention to the retail sales of the Eurozone, which will be published at 11:00 (London time). Later, at 14:30 London time, there will be initial applications for unemployment in the United States. However, the main events of the current week, as usual, will be presented by the American labor reports, which will be published tomorrow at 14:30 London time.
Daily
On the last autumn day, the pair rose to the landmark psychological and technical level of 1.2000, after which it bounced off quite expectedly. I would like to note that such important and significant levels, as a rule, are not passed the first time. However, the next day, on December 1, the main currency pair showed impressive growth and ended trading with the formation of a huge white candle with a closing price of 1.2069. Yesterday, the quote reported strengthening and trading ended above another fundamentally important mark of 1.2100.
At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading near 1.2123. The pair shows its readiness to continue strengthening, however, we cannot rule out another pullback to the broken resistance of sellers in the area of 1.2010-1.2000. On the other hand, if you look closely at the daily and weekly timeframes, you can see that the path up to 1.2400-1.2450 looks open and does not portend any serious difficulties for players to increase.
H1
On the hourly chart, the pair moves in an ascending channel with parameters: 1.1800-1.1922 (support line) and 1.2109 (resistance line). Since the growth was already quite impressive and also taking into account the fact that the pair is trading right under the upper border of the channel, I do not exclude a corrective pullback to the area of 1.2080-1.2050, from where I recommend considering opening long positions on EUR/USD. Earlier and more aggressive purchases can be tried near 1.2100. As for sales, they seem to be much more risky positioning, since they are against the current and rather strong upward dynamics. Although we should not forget about tomorrow's publication of nonfarm. Any price movement options are possible on these most important American reports, and you need to keep this in mind.
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