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14.02.201318:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis For February 14, 2013

Análisis a largo plazo
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Disappointing eurozone GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2012 showed that the currency block is still in deep recession. Moreover it has weighted on the strong euro, which took the Swiss franc and sterling down. 


A decline of 0.6% was expected to put things in place on the old continent, where currently there are two diametrically opposed realities: Northern Europe - with economic and financial indicators of high-level and the South  - in full recession with record unemployment rate, and no clear exits in sight apart from Mario Draghi and some rating agencies' statements on Tuesday.

Of course these statements contradict those of the European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio, who said the agency could lower negative interest rates if necessary to pull the eurozone out of recession. Scarce will be done for the euro that assessment!

All stock markets went down, particularly in Europe, as well as the Dow Jones, which short-term uptrend is threatening, but the medium and long term both remain intact.

In this context, the euro looks closely for its support of 1.33, which dropps down sharply against the dollar, seeking a minimum objective of 1.3150 for the rest of the week.

The British pound, which is already quite weak, broke the 1.55 area, and is aiming at 1.5315, targeting Double Top on the weekly chart.

From the other hand, the expected monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan did not generate very significant impact on the value of the yen. It is still slightly appreciated against the dollar, and this movement, coupled with the sharp decline of the euro and the pound, is giving the EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY pairs strong bearish tint that can deepen in the next hours.

Finally, the weekly jobless claims released in the news agenda of the American session, were almost at the same level.

Anyway, the eurozone GDP affects not only on the euro rate, but covers all areas of the world's finances, grabbing the headlines of the day.
 

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