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At the moment, the pound's dynamics completely depends on Brexit. The progress in the negotiations may even determine the future of both the UK's economy and its national currency. The announcements made on Friday caused a slump in the British pound. However, this was quite predictable. The fact is that all officials involved in the process said that the likelihood of the unregulated Brexit was increasing. There was not even a slight hope that during the weekends the parties would manage to make progress. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the new week, the pound sterling showed a jump. The advance was caused by the news that the parties have reached a compromise on one of the key issues that is the level playing field rules. In fact, this is the issue of equal tariffs, quotas and customs duties. However, it does not mean the complete abolition of any customs duties and trade restrictions. Nevertheless, the parties have agreed not to implement such customs regimes that may restrict competition. Against this background, London and Brussels have announced that they will continue the negotiations. It seems that the talks may last until the end of the year. Despite the level playing field rules, the problems of state regulation and subsidies to the economy remains unresolved. Notably, there are no details about the settled issue. All possible tariffs may be the same. However, one of the states may create additional competitive advantages through various tax compensations or direct subsidies. Thus, the parties still have something to discuss. However, in the next few days, the British pound's movement will depend on details of the equal conditions. However, the talks may lose sense, if the UK and the EU fail to reach a full agreement. In other words, the pound's jump is supported by emotions and the infinite faith in a bright future.
The pound/dollar pair showed high activity and slid to 1.3130. After that, it slowed down and recovered. Speculative activity is extremely high. This could be proved by the coefficient of speculative positions, sharp changes in the price, and high volatility. Since the beginning of December, the average dynamics has been 148 pips. This reading is above the average daily volatility. Judging by the current prices, the new trading week began with a gap of 140 pips. Traders were really shocked by such a change. On the daily chart, we can see a mid-term uptrend. A correctional movement may begin just after the price reaches the peak of this trend.Speculators are still monitoring the news flow. The market swings are possible amid new information. According to the technical analysis, the pair is fluctuating within the levels of 1.3290 and 1.3320. A break of either limit may lead to a local jump or drop. According to the comprehensive analysis, there are sell signals on the one-hour and daily charts.
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